GIVE THEM THEIR OWN FIGHT:

Ousting Assad without a backup plan (Ehsan Ahrari, 10/05/05, Asia Times)

There are reports in the Western media that the inquiry of special UN investigator Deltev Mehlis into the assassination of Lebanon's former prime minister, Rafik Hariri, is nearing a conclusion. Four actors, who are either interested in it or will be affected by it, are driven by varying and somewhat conflicting agendas.

The US is hoping to use the Mehlis report to oust Syrian President Bashar Assad. Lebanon wants to use it to rehabilitate its national sovereignty. The Arab states are worried about the potential instability in Syria, which is next door to Iraq, and about the erosion of another Arab state that can pose even a semblance of challenge to Israel. Israel, on the contrary, is anticipating the removal of a thorn from its side. Then, it will only have to concentrate on confronting Iran.

The least-contemplated aspect of a potential regime change in Syria might be the potential rise of influence and potency of pan-jihadi forces in Syria, if the Assad regime is ousted with the same lack of regard to having a stable government taking its place as happened at the time of the US invasion of Iraq.

It is not Syria's alleged involvement in Hariri's assassination that is bothering the Bush administration. Rather, it is Syria's role related to the rising tide of insurgency in Iraq that is immeasurably frustrating the US. America's stakes in Iraq are appearing too grim, and Syria, more than Iran, is getting the blame because the insurgency is predominantly Sunni.

Even though Assad's regime in Syria represents the rule of the Alawite sect (which is Shi'ite), Syria is a predominantly Sunni state. As such, the Sunni insurgents of Iraq are reported to be finding considerable sympathy in Syria.

Topple Assad, sheer off the Kurdish areas, and fund a Shi'ite insurgency and you'll have the jihadis on the defensive in Syria, instead of the offensive in Iraq.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 4, 2005 8:56 AM