October 4, 2005

AREN'T WE SUPPOSED TO BE CHASTENED BY IRAQ?:

US 'aiming at Syria regime change' (Anton La Guardia, 05/10/2005, Daily Telegraph)

Israel predicted yesterday that America would impose fresh sanctions on Syria in an attempt to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad.

Shaul Mofaz, the defence minister, said he believed sanctions would follow publication of a United Nations report expected to implicate senior Syrian officials in the murder of Rafik al-Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister.

"I won't be surprised if Syria gets a red card," Mr Mofaz told Israel radio. "[The United States] will take actions against Syria, beginning with economic sanctions and moving on to others, that will make it clear to the Syrians that their policies do not comply with UN decisions, the US's new world order or the prohibition of sovereign states to support terrorism."

On Saturday, President George W Bush and his national security council are to discuss America's options on Syria, ranging from tightening existing limited sanctions to military action.


Dictatorships don't get sovereignty rights.


MORE:
Gulf factor key to PM’s Iran vote decision (K.P. NAYAR, 9/25/05, Telegraph of India)

New Delhi acquitted itself reasonably well in the first significant challenge to its global standing and diplomacy since the world acknowledged India as an emerging global power worthy of being in the big league in the 21st century.

The handling of the challenge — its vote on whether Iran’s nuclear programme should be referred to the UN Security Council — was all the more commendable because its outcome defied domestic political expediency.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh personally cleared the decision to vote with the US and the so-called EU-3, namely Germany, France and the UK, in favour of referring Iran at an unspecified date to the Security Council on suspicions of pursuing a programme to acquire nuclear weapons in the full knowledge that the vote would spark a furore among Left parties and to a lesser extent in the BJP.

In deciding to vote with the West and not abstaining along with Russia, China, Brazil and South Africa, what weighed with the Prime Minister was the absolute imperative for India to secure its interests in the Gulf and not the desire to protect the July 18, 2005, Indo-US nuclear agreement, according to diplomats engaged in the negotiations that led to the IAEA resolution yesterday.

Top-ranking Americans have told equally top-ranking Indians in recent weeks that the US has plans to invade Iran before Bush’s term ends. In 2002, a year before the US invaded Iraq, high-ranking Americans had similarly shared their definitive vision of a post-Saddam Iraq, making it clear that they would change the regime in Baghdad.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 4, 2005 10:41 PM
Comments

"Dictatorships don't get sovereignty rights" -- Yes, it's that simple. The rest is tactics. Thanks to BroJudd for tracking this theme clearly.

Posted by: JAB at October 4, 2005 11:03 PM

Top-ranking Americans have told equally top-ranking Indians in recent weeks that the US has plans to invade Iran before Bush’s term ends.

As a taxpayer, veteran, and American citizen, I would be quite vexed if they DIDN'T have such plans, but there's a BIG difference between having contingency plans, and intending to carry them out.

The Bush admin isn't currently well-positioned to carry out another proactive invasion.

Simply bombing Iran is a credible concept, but an invasion ?
In the first place, Iran won't be the pushover that Iraq was, or Syria would be.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 5, 2005 3:48 AM

Michael: You might be surprised.

Posted by: jd watson [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 5, 2005 4:38 AM

Always possible.

My point is that it's not probable.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 5, 2005 7:28 AM

A rather interesting take on Iran vs the US from the War Nerd.

War Nerd

Posted by: Ali Choudhury at October 5, 2005 7:45 AM

We don't really have any choice in Iran if Israel tells us it's going to nuke them if we don't do something.

Posted by: oj at October 5, 2005 7:58 AM

Attacking Iran, yes, but invading ?

Posted by: Michael Herdegen [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 5, 2005 8:16 AM

As long as you maintain a massive infantry you'll continue to make the same invasion mistake over and over again.

Posted by: oj at October 5, 2005 8:45 AM

Mr Choudhury;

I thought War Nerd demonstrated a rather typical modern misunderstanding of warfare and the situation in Iraq and the Middle East in general. Although he mentions the eight year long Iran-Iraq war, he completely misses the most important implication of it: if Iran couldn't beat Iraq in eight years of bloody warfare, just how well will it do against a power that crushed Iraq in weeks? I think his view on the public attitudes of Iraqis and Iranians is completely wrong. In short, I find his rant just one step above what you'd find on the Daily Kos and an embarassment to anyone reading it.

Posted by: Annoying Old Guy at October 5, 2005 11:35 AM

AOG:

I got rather the opposite impression of War Nerd's analysis.

Iraq invaded Iran, not the other way around, and even with U.S. support and a much better-equipped military, Saddam eventually had to agree to a negotiated peace.

The U.S. didn't crush the Iraqi military in three weeks in '03; the Iraqi military just refused to conduct symmetrical warfare, for the most part.

America could bomb Iran back to the Stone Age, but invading and occupying Iran with minimal damage would be a very tall order, and not one that we could currently carry out.

It could be done, but at the very least we'd need a bigger Army.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 5, 2005 1:19 PM
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