August 27, 2005
CHECKS AND BALANCES:
Depleted Iran cabinet meets after rejection of four by parliament (Reuters, 26 August 2005)
Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad convened his depleted team of ministers for their first meeting yesterday after suffering the ignominy of seeing parliament reject four of his cabinet picks.Wednesday’s no-confidence vote for Ahmadinejad’s proposed oil, education, cooperatives and welfare ministers marked the first time since a constitutional reform in 1989 that parliament had not endorsed a president’s first cabinet in its entirety.
It left oil policy of Opec’s No. 2 crude exporter in limbo, served an important warning to the young, conservative president and could presage internal power struggles among Iran’s conservative camp, which has swept reformists from all positions of power in the last three years, political analysts said.
“This was a real lesson to Ahmadinejad that he has to listen more. It’s a setback for him,” said one analyst, who declined to be named.
“It showed that, although parliament is mostly conservative, there are rifts developing and the moderate, more centrist camp seems to be getting stronger.”
Ahmadinejad has three months to propose alternative nominees although analysts said he would probably do so much sooner.
“His next picks will have to be more experienced, more moderate figures,” said the analyst, noting that lack of experience and a radical background were the most serious criticisms levelled by lawmakers.
Democracy is messy sometimes, huh? Posted by Orrin Judd at August 27, 2005 8:33 PM
Well, it's not an actual democracy, but this is pretty interesting. The four rejected ministers were Ahmadinejad cronies from his days as mayor of Tehran. There are lots of different possibilities for this. One interesting possibility is that the parliment is expressing its annoyance at the rigged election.
Posted by: David Cohen at August 28, 2005 9:57 AM"actual" -- good one.
Posted by: oj at August 28, 2005 10:00 AMHmmm.
Might be a little difficult to wage war on a country whose parliment can reject it's Presidents cabinet and make it stick.
Posted by: Andrew X at August 28, 2005 10:25 AMAndrew: Why? The president is a figure-head behind whom lurks the Leader, who has all the power. Parliment cannot undo his decress, he undoes their's. He declares war and he is commander-in-chief of the armed forces. He controls the media and he chooses half the Guardian Council, which approves of legislation and candidates for office.
Posted by: David Cohen at August 28, 2005 11:05 AMAndrew:
Indeed, one of the most notable features of the Revolutionary Republic is that it has been quite peaceful, except when Saddam attacked it.
Posted by: oj at August 28, 2005 11:22 AMOJ:
Only if you count arming and aiding Hezbollah and other terrorist groups and threatening to nuke Israel as being "peaceful."
Posted by: PapayaSF at August 28, 2005 3:14 PMBarry:
Exactly.
Israel has sent troops into Lebanon--Iran never has. Iran has likewise never engaged Israel militarily.
Posted by: oj at August 28, 2005 3:42 PMThough experiment: if Iran shared a border with Israel, would there have already been a war that ended with unconditional surrender?
Fighting with proxies is easy, cheap, (almost) plausibly deniable, and even fungible. Fighting a war for national survival is not.
Israel and Iran have been in contact (behind the scenes) quite often. But with Iraq downgraded as a threat (for many years and now for the foreseeable future), any chance of 'friendship' (even covert) is gone.
The question is what Khameini will do. How far will he push, and what will happen if Hezbollah becomes more than just an irritant to the north?
Posted by: jim hamlen at August 28, 2005 10:41 PMHezbollah's going to be the government to the north.
Posted by: oj at August 28, 2005 11:26 PMSomehow, I don't think Hezbollah will be sustainable. They have done more 'government' than any of the Palestinian gangs, but they also have harsher rhetoric. They are (the tighhtly controlled) puppets of Tehran, which makes them more dangerous than Hamas or Islamic Jihad. And the US owes a big hurt to Hezbollah, as no less than Richard Armitage said in testimony to Congress.
The Bekaa Valley will be cleansed in the near future. Perhaps your point is that it will be easier if Hezbollah is official.
Posted by: ratbert at August 28, 2005 11:58 PMWe never serve revenge cold, and not that often warm. Once Hezbollah and Hamas have countries to run they'll be just like any other political parties.
Posted by: oj at August 29, 2005 12:04 AM