Sarkozy is by far the best significant figure on the French political scene, although that is at best faint praise.

The Muslim invasion has been a serious issue since the mid 70s but the French elite reflexively has refused to allow the problem to be discussed for fear of jeopardizing trade relations with the Islamic World. Muslims are among the few people dopey enough to buy French manufactured products. Also, the French elite hubristically believed that everyone who came to live in France wanted to be French on some level. The Muslims have no interest in any form of assimilation, even when it comes to obeying the criminal law. The Left was no better. The Communists, on orders from the Soviet Union, preached a line of close unity with the Muslims and a fanatic hatred of the US and Israel. The Socialists bought into all that 'we are the world' claptrap that the mainstream left does here.

Thus, with rare exceptions, the anti-immigration tough-on-crime position was the property of far right moonbats like LePen, who will never get more than about 15-20% of the national vote. Even in France complaining about conspiracies between Zionists and Freemasons alienates lots of voters. Charles Pasqua, a rival of Chirac's in the 80s and a former Interior Minister, tried to exploit these issues, but he got derailed by a corruption scandal. And when France won the World Kickball Championship with a mixed-race team, the Left trumpeted how France could never have reached this important milestone without admitting large numbers of Muslims and isn't winning the World Kickball Championship more important than being safe from street crime or having liveable inner cities?

He's a populist--he'll be catering to Muslim opinion by the end of the decade.

Sarkozy will be France's Gorbachev, unleashing forces that eventually destroy the country.

OJ,

There has never been a successful 'populist' candidate for the French Presidency, and Sarkozy knows that.

Also, as a Jewish convert to Catholicism with a strong record of pro-Israel and pro-American statements, at least by French standards, and a general reputation for straight shooting, he will not be able to engage in the kind of nonsense that French politicians with less crystallized records do all the time.

Frankly, AWW, I think he'll just get steamrolled by history. The French will do a lot to keep their high cost, dirigiste ways in place. Put simply, I think the CAC-40 and French real estate are really bad deals today.

Le Pen came second just last round. A fascist with a mildly better reputation could easily win.

LePen had 15% in the first round and 19% in the second. Hell, I voted for him 2d time around.

A fascist with a mildly better reputation, Bruno Megret, got about 3% in the first round. Much of the LePen vote is drawn by his 'bad reputation' and many are former Communists who live in housing projects that are now predominantly Muslim.

Yes, that anti-Muslim vote will easily command 50% of the vote in the not too distant future and the parties of the Right will be only too happy to vie for it.

Despite your prejudices, down-and-outers and drop-outs don't make up more than about 25% of the French electorate.

But they're 100% of the population.