Is all of this EU budget negotiations merely shifting the chairs on the Titanic or will the EU be able to reform into the United States of Europe as they originally planned?

Lesson One from the 20th Century: Nationalism trumps socialism.

The notion that Angela Merkel, whose putative government will be heavily dependent on the votes of Bavarian farmers, will support any serious cut in agricultural subsidies is hilarious.

Cuts for French farmers.

You can't the French farmers without cutting the Brits and the Germans, as Chirac has quite correctly pointed out.

Of course you can--the French are outvoted.

And then they quit. Then the German farmers get outvoted. Not too knowledgeable about coalitional politics and pork barrels are you?

The EU and its ancestors were designed by and for the Germans and Frogs, who went out of their way to shaft the Brits. Given the current state of the world, why shouldn't the Germans pitch the Froggies overboard? The question, of course, is why Britain wants anything to do with either...

Bart: The CAP is such a large portion of the EU budget (a little less than half) and France's portion of the CAP is so large (approximately 25%) that, if it weren't for the British rebate, EU membership for France would be a wash. Even with the rebate, Britain is a bigger net contributor than France, and Germany really gets hosed. In effect, the CAP is the means by which Germany pays France to be in the EU. If it weren't for the CAP, Germany could pay its farmers as much as the EU does and still have a couple of billion Euros left over.

Because, then everyone else pitches the Germans overboard. The Poles and Italians have no use for them, let alone the Brits. Even the smaller nations like the Czechs, Dutch and Hungarians remember the German hobnail boot, and they don't remember it fondly.

The EU is a Franco-German project to Europe safe and prosperous for French and Germans. The unity of the two states has been the linchpin of European unity since the 50s. The other nations have historically seen the French as having a leavening impact on German hegemony. An EU without France simply becomes a means for the Germans to rule Europe without using the SS. That is not a prospect which appeals to non-Germans, so they would unify to stop the Germans at any cost. At which point the EU project becomes useless for Germans.

An EU without the Germans and the French essentially serves no purpose, as 2 of the three largest European economies would be out of the organization. And the Brits are forced to consider what unites them with Italians, Poles and Spaniards while separating them from Germans and French. A hilarious prospect to be sure.

"he woman viewed as the likely next German chancellor"

he woman is better than girly man.

"the CAP is the means by which Germany pays France to be in the EU"

Think of it as war reparations.

Bart: under your analysis, which I do disagree with, the EU falls apart. Is that supposed to be a problem?

Insert not after do in the last sentence.

If your goal is to have the EU fall apart, a not-unreasonable goal to be sure, of course it's not a problem.

But, if you want an EU that is more than a customs union, a free trade zone, but instead has some pretentions to superstatehood, then any attempt to gore the French farmer will be killing to continued European unity. The smaller European states may find the French annoying and arrogant, but they don't fear France. As anyone who has travelled from Amsterdam to Bratislava knows, they do fear the Germans.

Since the days of Adenauer and deGaulle, Franco-German cooperation has been seen as essential to European unity.

The EU, like NATO, is primarily concerned with avoiding another Franco-Prussian war. Four is enough. But that's a different issue from the CAP and whether a German politician can oppose it without catching heck from Bavarian farmers. The problem is that, on the way to Franco-German unity, the Europeans got distracted by the idea that they could be a superpower. Once they get past that delusion, they can go back to avoiding another war -- one that the Americans will not be bailing them out of.

"Once they get past that delusion, they can go back to avoiding another war -- one that the Americans will not be bailing them out of."

I assume we should side with the germans next time.

Other than in the event of some kind of renewed Russian irredentism targeting Eastern Europe or some German Drang nach Osten, I see little reason to involve ourselves in any future European conflict.