June 21, 2005

LUCKILY I PAID FOR THOSE OIL FUTURES IN EUROS...:

One energy forecast: Oil supplies grow (Ron Scherer, 6/22/05, The Christian Science Monitor)

According to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas, the end is near - when the earth's oil reserves start to run dry and scarce petroleum will go to the highest bidder. Seers have written books detailing that time, and websites such as EnergyShortage.com forecast a steady rise in prices - such as Tuesday's oil price of more than $59 a barrel.

Not so fast, maintains a new report issued Tuesday by the widely respected group Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA). Instead of the wells running dry, CERA says petroleum supplies will be expanding faster than demand over the next five years, according to an analysis oil field by oil field. In good news for the SUV set, the new oil will be light, sweet crude - ideal for making gasoline. And since supply will grow, CERA forecasts prices will fall, possibly below $40 a barrel.

"We expect supply to outpace demand growth in the next few years, which would take the pressure off prices around 2007-2008 or thereafter and even lead to a period of price weakness," says Peter Jackson, a coauthor of the report.

Posted by Orrin Judd at June 21, 2005 8:08 PM
Comments

The problem isn't oil. It's refining capacity which remains at 80s levels.

Posted by: bart at June 21, 2005 8:27 PM
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