June 27, 2005

LES MISERABLESER (via Robert Schwartz):

My virility doesn't matter - the EU's does (Mark Steyn, 28/06/2005, Daily Telegraph)

The subject under debate was poverty and social disintegration, and pondering the collapse of civility in modern Britain [Frank Field, at a Centre for Policy Studies seminar last week,] gave seven reasons. Number One, he said, was the decline of religion.

At that point, many Britons will simply have tuned out for the remaining six, and the more disapproving ones will be speculating darkly on whether, like yours truly and other uptight squares, he has "casual sex" issues. Religion is all but irrelevant to public discussion in the United Kingdom, and you'd have to search hard for an Anglican churchman prepared to argue in public, as Mr Field does, that material poverty derives from moral poverty.

But the point is: he's not wrong. There aren't many examples of successful post-religious societies. And, if one casts around the world today, one notices the two powers with the worst prospects are the ones most advanced in their post-religiosity. Russia will never recover from seven decades of Communism: its sickly menfolk have a lower life expectancy than Bangladeshis; its population shrinks by 100 every hour, and by 0.4 per cent every year, a rate certain to escalate as the smarter folks figure it's better to emigrate than get sucked down in the demographic death spiral.

And then, of course, there's the European Union. These last couple of weeks, Tony Blair has been giving off an even stronger whiff than usual of a man trembling on the brink of his rendezvous with destiny: why, he's now the EU's self-proclaimed reformer, the man who'll save the continent from a dreary obsolescent cadre of rigid Euro-apparatchiks. "We have to renew," he says. "And we can. But only if we remarry the European ideals we believe in with the modern world we live in."

But, reading the stirring Blairite blather alongside the gloomy news from Russia, it all begins to sound rather familiar. No doubt, in another week or two, the Prime Minister may even have invented some Euro-buzzwords to serve as equivalents to perestroika and glasnost. Mr Blair is attempting the same trick Gorbachev tried - "remarrying" (an odd choice of word) an inflexible ideology with reality. It's unlikely to be any more successful with the EU than with the Soviet Union.

Every day you get ever more poignant glimpses of the Euro-future, such as it is. In East Germany, whose rural communities are dying, village sewer systems are having a tough time adjusting to the lack of use. Populations have fallen so dramatically that there are too few people flushing to keep the flow of waste moving. Traditionally, government infrastructure expenditure arises from increased demand. In this case, the sewer lines are having to be narrowed at great cost in order to cope with dramatically decreased demand.

There's simply no precedent for managed decline in societies as advanced as Europe's, but the early indications are that it's going to be expensive: environmentally speaking, it's a question of sustainable lack of growth. Listen to the European political class defend the status quo on the Common Agricultural Policy, and then tell yourself these are the folks you want tackling the real crises just around the corner.

For Britain and Ireland, two relatively dynamic provinces of a moribund continent, there are only two options: share the pain and expense and societal upheaval, or decide that you're not that "European" after all and begin the process of detachment or at least semi-detachment. When the Continentals bemoan "Anglo-Saxon" capitalism, they have a point. Of the 20 economies with the biggest GDP per capita, no fewer than 11 are current or former realms of Her Britannic Majesty.

Admittedly, some of the wealthiest turf is the pinprick colonial tax havens - Bermuda, Guernsey, the Caymans. But, if you eliminate populations under 10 million, the GDP per capita Top Five are, in order, America, Canada, Australia, Belgium and the United Kingdom. And if you make it territories with over 20 million, the Top Four is an Anglosphere sweep. In other words, the ability to generate wealth among large populations does indeed seem to be an "Anglo-Saxon" thing. That being so, which is more likely? That Blair will transform a Europe antipathetic to Anglo-Saxon ways? Or that Europe will drag its Anglo-Saxons down with it?


So when the wolf pack comes you can't even hide in the sewer?

Posted by Orrin Judd at June 27, 2005 11:20 PM
Comments

The fools imagined that they could have a cafeteria civilization, wherein they pick out what they will among the folkways of the West and leave the disciplines, as if all were not parts of a seamless garment..

Posted by: Lou Gots at June 27, 2005 11:30 PM

As long as you comfortably live long enough to make it to your Quietus, what do you care about the state of rural sewage systems?

Posted by: b at June 28, 2005 12:16 AM

Finally read this week's People mag. Interesting quote from Christian Bale on filming Batman Begins in Chicago -

"Coming from London, it seemed like everybody [in the Midwest] was just fantastically happy. I thought everyone was on Prozac."

Posted by: Sandy P at June 28, 2005 12:18 AM

I'm counting on France's reflexive arrogance and Germany's misplaced condesention to save Britian from itself in the end, since their population still seems to be wary of getting too far into bed with either nation, due to those (and other) negative traits. That doesn't mean they're going to be saved, but it may keep them from being dragged into the continental black hole.

Posted by: John at June 28, 2005 1:20 AM

Communism is correctly seen as a religion itself, not as a revolt from religion. Eastern European states like Russia which went from Tsarist autocracy to Communism to the current grabathon have populations so beaten down by government that they are essentially hopeless. Christianity gives them no more hope than did Communism.

Irish relative economic success is due to its continued receipt of Continental taxpayers' money and its role as a port of entry to the EU for American companies. If it detaches from the EU, it will be back to backwater status.

Does the goober who wrote this article really want to start talking about failed Anglosphere states like Zimbabwe, Nigeria or Sierra Leone?

Posted by: bart at June 28, 2005 6:40 AM

Sure. Some tertiary Anglosphere states failed. The primary Francosphere states--France, Germany, Russia, etc.--did.

Posted by: oj at June 28, 2005 6:56 AM

Bart: True but the Irish have put a fairly sensible tax regime in place which will keep things chugging along and continue to induce foreign companies to set up shop there.

Don't know if it's fair to lump Eastern Germany in with the rest of Europe. They were communists for about 5 decades after all.

That being said is it religiosity that matters or beneficial tax regimes?

Australia seems to be doing allright despite not being a particularly religious country.

Look at some of the world's more overtly religious countries and they're not economic superstars by a long shot.

Posted by: Ali Choudhury at June 28, 2005 7:49 AM

Ali:

Actually, you're as wrong about Australia as bart is about Ireland:

http://www.brothersjudd.com/blog/archives/003456.html

Posted by: oj at June 28, 2005 8:02 AM

Ali,

Your point about tax policy is well-taken.

Eastern Germany remains dramatically worse off than the West despite the infusion of trillions of Euros since the Wall fell. Prior to the Communist ascendancy, the Lander that made up the former DDR were significantly better off than Bavaria, Baden-Wurtemburg and Rheinland-Pfalz. Today, their per capita income is significantly less than that of those Lander. The former DDR also has many of the pathologies of the rest of the former Soviet Bloc, high unemployment and underemployment, staggering rates of alcoholism and drug abuse, tons of street crime, decreasing birth rates, etc.

The former DDR suffers from the problem more than some places like Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia and Hungary. I think it has to do with a sense that Russians and East Germans have that maybe they can't govern themselves. When they do, they end up with Communism, Nazism, Tsarism etc, not exactly a winning record. Poles, Czechs, etc haven't had self-government since forever, so they are more of a blank slate and look to successful, or even relatively successful, models rather than recreating the same failure over and over again. And I think they see things with greater optimism.

As you are aware and apparently OJ is not, Howard won his re-election by an increased margin essentially by running a James Carville 'It's the economy, stupid.' campaign.

OJ,

Wherever the French and the British colonized essentially similar places, the French have done a far better job of preparing the locals for self-government. The British had a better navy, so they got better places, better raw material to start with.

Posted by: bart at June 28, 2005 8:20 AM

oj:

". He argued that his homeland, Australia had come up with a novel secular social code in place of Christianity but that it remained significantly freer than Europe too (see his posts for December 26, 2002). But if you follow the link to that chart you'll see that Australia registers nearly as far to the traditional values side as we do and is in fact quite unsecular by contrast to the rest of the West."

If you look at the linked chart, Australia looks a lot closer to Canada than to the States.

Posted by: Ali Choudhury at June 28, 2005 8:29 AM

Ali:

Yes and both are on the values side of the divide.

Posted by: oj at June 28, 2005 9:23 AM

I thought the school system in Ireland was primarily responsible for attracting investors. The nuns kept teaching kids reading, writing and 'rithmatic even when the pedogogical experts said learning by rote kills creativity.

Posted by: erp at June 28, 2005 12:01 PM

Bart -

Its is funny to see the contradictory occurrences of the Anglo-Saxon export states argument. According to the political bent of the writer you are shown either list A (USA, Canada, Australia) or list B (Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Sudan) always exclusive of one another. Though that doesn't negate the point Steyn makes in the article above. After all comparing the two lists reveals certain demographic and historiographical differences that can't be ignored.

You can take the Anglo-saxon protestant to America but you can't take the Anglo-Saxon protestant out of the immigrant. Likewise you can take the Anglo-Saxon into Africa but you can't take Africa out of the Africans. When it comes to culture its not the ruling class that counts.

Posted by: Shelton at June 28, 2005 12:07 PM

Bart:

The successful Anglo-Saxon countries aren't successful because of their indigenous populations.

Posted by: Peter B at June 28, 2005 1:22 PM

Steyn starts talking about post-religious societies but switches the topic to Anglo-Saxonism. Interesting that of the top four, three couuld be considered post-religious. So what is Steyn's real point?

Posted by: Robert Duquette at June 28, 2005 2:00 PM

If Ireland's recent success was merely from EU funding, it should be no better than Portugal, Spain, Greece, or Italy's Mezzogiorno. Instead, they are doing much better, and that's because Ireland's government changed their development strategy. All they needed to do was finally get rid of DeValera's baleful legacy.

Bart is the only person I know who has claimed the French did a better job of preparing locals for self government. In any case, for the most part those states that did best were those who already had some form of statehood, history, and literature before they were colonized. It's no surprise sub-Saharan Africa went into the toilet as they had few indigenous examples to go by.

Posted by: Chris Durnell at June 28, 2005 2:06 PM

Robert Duquette-

Steyn's point is that great societies are built on "three principal building blocks:" religion, family, and wealth creation.

While the three nations you mentioned are post-religious (and post-family perhaps) they still have the uniquely Anglo-Saxon ability of wealth creation. So Steyn hopes that the UK doesn't throw in economically with the Continentals and lose the one great ability they still maintain. Better to have one of the three great principals than none.

Posted by: Shelton at June 28, 2005 2:48 PM

Anglo-Saxonism is based on religious faith, as opposed to the rationalism of the Continent.

Posted by: oj at June 28, 2005 3:17 PM
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