May 24, 2005

WIN/WIN:

Here's the Deal (The Prowler, 5/24/2005, American Spectator)

"There is no way this agreement that breaks Democratic obstruction can be spun any way other than as a victory for Republicans and the Bush Administration," said a Republican Senate leadership aide late Monday night, regarding the agreement reached by 14 senators to avert a showdown vote on the so-called nuclear option that would have ended Democratic filibustering of Bush judicial nominees.

The parameters of the deal insure that six of eight obstructed Bush nominees to the federal judiciary will receive an up or down confirmation vote in the Senate. The three most opposed Bush nominees to the court, Priscilla Owen, Janice Rogers Brown and William Pryor, will not have their nominations blocked any longer; also, three other Bush nominees will eventually receive an up or down confirmation vote as well; the only two nominees who still may be filibustered are Michigan judge Henry Saad and William Myers.

Also as part of the compromise, the Democrat moderates promise to prevent any future filibuster of Bush appeals court and Supreme Court nominees. While Democrats were able to have their "exceptional circumstances" clause inserted in the deal, no one anticipates that such a situation will arise, assuming Democrats keep their promise. And it appears, that a number of promises were being tossed around the negotiation room on Monday afternoon.

Several Republican senators involved in negotiations swore that not only will the six Bush nominees be given an up or down vote, but that Democrats in the room were aware that Republicans involved in the negotiations had agreed to vote cloture on Myers as well, and that Democratic negotiators had agreed that such a move could take place, thus also allowing Myers an up or down vote in the Senate. "Assuming that our guys hold themselves to that promise," says another Republican staffer working on the Judiciary committee, "then we're looking at a clean sweep for confirmations."


While Mr. Saad and perhaps Mr. Myers got thrown under the bus and while we'd all have enjoyed the visceral thrill of breaking the filibuster just to spite Democrats, the deal looks excellent. There's reason to believe that enough Republicans didn't want to change the rule that the vote would have been lost anyway. Meanwhile, Democrats couldn't afford to filibuster everyone, especially not the women, so they needed a face saving measure. Eventually the question will be brought to a head, probably over a Supreme Court pick, but for now both sides got what they needed. Only their most rabid partisans will be distraught.

MORE:
Breakthrough Pact Unlikely To End Battle (Dan Balz, May 24, 2005, Washington Post)

At best, the group produced a cease-fire in the judicial wars that will deal with nominees who long have been in the confirmation pipeline.

After that, no one can say with certainty whether the deal will stick, particularly if there is a Supreme Court nomination in the near future, as many anticipate. The 14 senators who joined hands last night said theirs is an agreement based on faith and goodwill, but there is no certainty or even commitment that they will continue to operate as a group once past the current nominees in question.

"I think they did what the Senate very often does," said Ross K. Baker, a professor of political science at Rutgers University and a longtime student of the Senate. "They kicked the can down the road. They basically postponed a crisis and set up the predicate for another one in the future on the Supreme Court nomination."


One of the most amusing aspects of the carefully crafted deal is that the President can just give saad and Myers recess appointments and the Democrats come away empty-handed. And the Michiganders make for especially good poster children of Democratic obstruction because Senator Stabenow is up in '06.

Posted by Orrin Judd at May 24, 2005 12:30 AM
Comments

So sayeth the man of the 50-0 electoral college vote.

Posted by: jsmith at May 24, 2005 12:36 AM

I don't buy it for second. Was Graham not quoted as saying that some of the judges would get 50 votes and some would not?

Posted by: b at May 24, 2005 12:46 AM

j:

& stuck by it while y'all went all wobbly.

Posted by: oj at May 24, 2005 12:48 AM

b:

If they can't get 50 they are outside the mainstream.

Posted by: oj at May 24, 2005 12:50 AM

OJ--made me laugh, at least...

Posted by: jsmith at May 24, 2005 12:52 AM

Only their most rabid partisans will be distraught.

Or maybe it's a deal that only moderates could like.

Posted by: David Cohen at May 24, 2005 12:53 AM

And, by the way, not for lack of my trying...

Posted by: jsmith at May 24, 2005 12:54 AM

Battles over Supreme Court nominees reverberate in the public discourse for a long time; battles over federal court judges do not. Which is why the Group of Seven's action Monday will anger the hard core political junkies, but have little effect on their standing with the masses. But pull the rug out from under a Supreme Court nominee either later this year or in 2006, and then you'll see a firestorm with widespread support among norma; GOP voters.

Posted by: John at May 24, 2005 12:56 AM

David:

No one likes it. Everyone always wants more.

Posted by: oj at May 24, 2005 1:03 AM

---"Assuming that our guys hold themselves to that promise," says another Republican staffer working on the Judiciary committee, "then we're looking at a clean sweep for confirmations."---

Assuming -- 1st mistake

How do they know a deal wasn't cut to throw Myers over? The proof will be in the voting.


Posted by: Sandy P. at May 24, 2005 1:27 AM

Via Powerline:

Check out NRO's Bench Memos for great coverage of the Deal. From my perspective, here are the two essential facts: (1) as virtually every Republican involved stressed, thr Deal makes sense for the Republicans only if the seven Democrats they worked with can be trusted to act in good faith on President Bush's current and future nominees and (2)Robert Byrd is the leader of the seven Dems.

Posted by: Sandy P. at May 24, 2005 1:33 AM

Besides recess appointments for Myers and Saad, the President should renominate Estrada if possible and find more women and other minorities who are very conservative. Put pressure on the weasels by appointing people who are hard to filibuster but Ralph Neas hates.

Posted by: Bob at May 24, 2005 1:43 AM

The Dems have essentially admitted that they had no basis for filibustering Brown, Owen, Pryor, and the three Michigan judges.
Given that, they would look like total buffoons if they now filibustered a Supreme Court nomination of any of those six, or anyone else, on ideological grounds.
It's too bad, now, that Estrada pulled out, but his pulling out -- after losing his wife, etc. --was understandable.

Posted by: Steve at May 24, 2005 2:17 AM

Sandy:

Myers trouble is going to be torture and Graham, not the Democrats.

Posted by: oj at May 24, 2005 7:44 AM

I haven't seen the exact lists of the 7 Dems but I got the impression that all were from red states (yes counting WV). So these Dems probably did the deal with an eye toward their reelection. This actually puts them in a box because if the deal blows up the GOP can still tag them as obstructionist and maybe even worse if they are seen as reneging on the deal.

Posted by: AWW at May 24, 2005 7:57 AM

AWW - No, Inouye is from a blue state, and Byrd doesn't care he's in a red state. I think on both sides it had little to do with electability, except for Collins, Snowe, Chafee.

The presence of loyal Republicans like Mike DeWine among the moderates suggests to me that Bush was involved behind the scenes, and DeWine was a Bush representative to steer the deal to terms acceptable to Bush. Ultimately, this was a political deal in which Republicans gave the Dems a temporary victory on judges in order to avoid looking like heavies and improve the Republican position in the 2006 election.

Posted by: pj at May 24, 2005 9:17 AM

Governor Lingle has an approval rate over 60%.

Byrd has been running scared for months now.

Posted by: oj at May 24, 2005 9:20 AM

"Only their most rabid partisans will be distraught." No. Anyone who can't see that this repudiation of their party, those who voted for them and the president by a despicable handful of sleazoids changed the landscape and made Bush the lamest of lame ducks, isn't looking very hard. The sharks smell blood in the water and when this episode is over, the left will have regained the power they believe is rightfully theirs.

In a world that only understands strength and power, an impotent Bush will become an object of ridicule -- wants to rule the world when he can't even control his own party hacks ha-ha-ha. Look for the polls in France and the Netherlands to start moving toward yes to the EU constitution and for further defections from our "allies."

Bush should make recess appointments of Bolton, Saud and Myers although at this point it probably doesn't much matter. Kofi is off the hook now paving the way for Clinton to be the next Secretary-General.

Posted by: erp at May 24, 2005 9:42 AM

erp:

He lost nothing.

Posted by: oj at May 24, 2005 9:50 AM

If the president has the nerve to give Myers and Saad recess appointments, then he will have made chicken salad from chicken, um, not-salad.

Posted by: David Cohen at May 24, 2005 10:30 AM

According to National Review's "Bench Memos" blog, Harry Reid is already promising more filibusters.

One wonders if perhaps the Democrats didn't just get snookered into a situation where they have to go back on their word almost immediately after giving it.

I just keep thinking: W is one of the best chess players ever. He's never more in command than when his opponents think they have him in a box.

Posted by: Mike Morley at May 24, 2005 10:34 AM

and every filibuster breaks the deal for one of the gang.

Posted by: oj at May 24, 2005 10:44 AM

The Crystal ball tells me that Bush will appoint the most extreme conservative to replace Rehnquist (presumably Estrada, lets say). There will be no filibuster supported by the 7 Democrats listed. Although Snowe, Collins, Spector, Chaffee will oppose the nomination, they will not support a filibuster. Estrada is in for Rehnquist. Democrats will figure there is no net gain for pro-life.

When there is a replacement for Stevens, Souter, O'Connor my Crystal ball fogs up.


Posted by: h-man at May 24, 2005 10:45 AM

h:

All three of them were appointed by Republican Presidents. Bush will find the most confirmable conservatives he can, and after this deal, that definition was pushed even further out. That is what the media will not figure out. To filibuster now, is to break a very public (and very mainstream-approved deal).

If Ginsburg retires, there will be more squawking, but I doubt if Bush listens.

Posted by: jim hamlen at May 24, 2005 11:00 AM

"Eventually the question will be brought to a head, probably over a Supreme Court pick, but for now both sides got what they needed"

Um, the Supreme Court vacancy is almost certainly only a few weeks away. And the chance of the Dems filibustering whoever Bush picks is 100%. And the chance of the MSM supporting the Dems in such a move is 100%.

The fact that 3 judges are through today (we assume, but the MOU doesn't rule out a tacit deal to vote them down) who weren't yesterday is irrelevant--the comparison to make is this deal to what could have been, and ALL the judges could have gotten through (except for maybe Saad, since he committed the cardinal sin of calling a politician a scumbag, and scumbag politicians don't like their colleagues being so described).

Posted by: b at May 24, 2005 11:24 AM

Saad was a Spencer Abraham pay-off. Who cares?

Posted by: Robert Schwartz at May 24, 2005 12:17 PM

b:

If I had a dollar for every day of my life where a Supreme Court vacancy was imminent I'd own the Red Sox.

But suppose there is an opening and the President picks Janice Rogers Brown, who the 7 Democrats just said is not filibuster-worthy. That's 62 votes in favor of breaking the filibuster, no?

Posted by: oj at May 24, 2005 12:31 PM

That seems logical, oj. But it also seemed logical that John Kerry would find it a political necessity to resign from the Senate.

Posted by: b at May 24, 2005 12:48 PM

b;

Yes, he lost didn't he.

Posted by: oj at May 24, 2005 2:17 PM

Guys: The deal doesn't say that the Democrats won't filibuster, it explicitly allows them to filibuster. The only limit is the limit imposed, at the time of the second or third or fourth filibuster, by any two of the pathetic seven if they conclude that the Dems, by their actions, have freed them to vote for the nuclear option -- at which point the Reps will be roasted by the MSM for breaking their word. As these are seven senators most likely to care about what the MSM thinks about them, they're very unlikely to think that line has been crossed.

There is nothing in this deal that stops them from filibustering JRB's appointment to the Supreme Court. There may be other reasons they can't get away with it, but it has nothing to do with this deal, the whole point of which, from the Dem's point of view, was to make such a filibuster possible.

Posted by: David Cohen at May 24, 2005 3:49 PM

It says the filbuster is only suitable for Extraordinary situations and that the conservatism of a Janice Rogers Brown is not such a situation. It's written in the wind.

Posted by: oj at May 24, 2005 4:25 PM

You and Bobby Byrd have discussed this, huh?

Posted by: David Cohen at May 24, 2005 5:15 PM

Byrd's terrified he's going to lose in '06. He's not going to filibuster anybody.

Posted by: oj at May 24, 2005 5:20 PM
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