May 5, 2005
THEY SHOOT HORSES, DON'T THEY? (via Mike Daley):
The Spiritual Malaise That Haunts Europe: Continent faces a grim future if it turns its back on its religious roots. (George Weigel, May 1, 2005, LA Times)
[E]urope's demographic meltdown is best analyzed in the realm of the human spirit, and that it is directly related to European high culture's abandonment of biblical religion.Getting at the roots of this crisis of civilizational morale means thinking about "history" differently. Europeans and Americans usually think of history as the product of politics (the struggle for power) or economics (the production of wealth). Both lines of thinking take a partial truth and try, unsuccessfully, to turn it into a comprehensive truth. Understanding Europe's current situation requires us to look at history through cultural lenses.
Europe began the 20th century confidently expecting unprecedented scientific, cultural and political achievements. Yet within 50 years, Europe produced two world wars, three totalitarian systems, a Cold War that threatened global destruction, mountains of corpses, the gulag and Auschwitz. What happened? And why? Political and economic analyses don't offer satisfactory answers. Cultural — which is to say spiritual — answers might do a better job.
When the European Union was debating its new constitutional treaty in 2003 and 2004, why were so many European intellectuals and political leaders determined to prevent any acknowledgment of Christianity as one of the roots of contemporary Europe's commitment to human rights and democracy? Because, over the last 150 years or so, the makers of European culture and politics have convinced themselves that, to be modern and free, Europe must jettison its Judeo-Christian heritage: that part of its culture formed by faith in the God of Abraham, Isaac, Jacob and Jesus.
A free European public square, Europeans have convinced themselves, must be radically secular. That is why the 70,000-word European constitution awaiting ratification could not find room within it for one word — "Christianity" — in describing the sources of European civilization. That is why the French government — the embodiment of secularism in public life — was attacked for flying the flag at half-staff in honor of John Paul II. That is why Europeans can only debate grave issues in biotechnology in utilitarian terms; "will it work?" completely trumps "is it right?" European high culture's conviction that to be adult, mature and free is to be radically secular has led to a vast and withering spiritual boredom — a drastic shrinkage in personal and social aspiration.
That spiritual boredom, I suggest, is why Europeans seem content to leave all hard political decisions to courts and bureaucracies, as they seem content to leave most questions of international security to the U.N. That spiritual boredom is why Europe is depopulating itself. Europe, bored, asks only to be left alone with its pleasures.
But the cost of spiritual boredom is very high. Demographic vacuums don't stay vacuums; they get filled — in Europe's case, by Islamic immigrants, some of whom become radicalized in the process. Europe's effort to create a tolerant, civil, democratic civilization by cutting itself off from one of that civilization's sources — Jewish and Christian convictions about the dignity of the person — is likely to fail. If Europe rejects what Pope Benedict XVI on Wednesday called its "unrenounceable Christian roots," the results are likely to be grim for those committed to decency, human rights and democracy.
It's too easily forgotten that The End of History was not merely a triumphalist notion, but sounded a cautionary note too:
Curiously, Fukuyama’s attitude toward the end of History is deeply ambivalent. On the one hand, faithful Hegelian that he is, he regards it as the final triumph of freedom. He speaks of nations or parts of the world that are still “stuck in history” or “mired in history,” as if residence in the realm of history were something it behooved us to change. On the other hand, he foresees that “the end of history will be a very sad time,” partly because he believes that the things that once called forth “daring, courage, imagination, and idealism will be replaced by economic calculation,” and partly because “in the post-historical period there will be neither art nor philosophy, just the perpetual caretaking of the museum of human history.” Thus he acknowledges “a powerful nostalgia for the time when history existed” and even suggests that the prospect of perpetual ennui that awaits mankind “after” History may “serve to get history started once again.”
That same caution was sounded years before by Albert Jay Nock:
Burke touches [the] matter of patriotism with a searching phrase. 'For us to love our country,' he said, 'our country ought to be lovely.' I have sometimes thought that here may be the rock on which Western civilization will finally shatter itself. Economism can build a society which is rich, prosperous, powerful, even one which has a reasonably wide diffusion of material well-being. It can not build one which is lovely, one which has savour and depth, and which exercises the irresistible attraction that loveliness wields. Perhaps by the time economism has run its course the society it has built may be tired of itself, bored by its own hideousness, and may despairingly consent to annihilation, aware that it is too ugly to be let live any longer.
Secular Europe perceives its own inevitable ugliness and welcomes annihilation. Posted by Orrin Judd at May 5, 2005 9:17 PM
ok, so europeans die off and muslims take their place. but the muslims have no more of a capacity to run a modern society in europe than they do in the middle east -- they have taken control of the lost dutchman. so eventually they give up and move back to their home countries. big deal, some triumph.
Posted by: cjm at May 5, 2005 11:08 PMIslam though has the basis, unlike secular Europe, for building a successful society.
Posted by: oj at May 5, 2005 11:15 PMRudyard Kipling made the same point a hundred years ago:
On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promised the Fuller Life
(Which started by loving our neighbour and ended by loving his wife)
Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "The Wages of Sin is Death."
The Muslims aren't coming. As I pointed out before, birthrates throughout North Africa and the Middle Easte are falling faster than in Europe. Certain Mulsim nations, such as Tunisia, are already below replacement level. In less than a generation,the others will inevitably follow suit. This will eliminate the driving pressure behind Muslim immigration into Europe (as a similar drop in Mexican birth rates has and will reduce Hispanic immigration into the US). Also remeber that the New Europeans of Eastern Europe so admired by the Right are experiencing a worse demographic collapse than Old Europeans in Western Europe.
That still leaves Europe with a financial and economic disaster caused by its graying population. If you want to blame something, blame urbanization. It's just too darned expensive to raise a large family in an urban environment. By historical standards, both Japan and Europe should be classified as very large "cities", and cities have always been population sinks and fill more graves than cribs each year.
Posted by: daniel duffy at May 6, 2005 10:14 AMThe East is falling faster because it experienced fifty years of more rigorous secular rationalism.
Posted by: oj at May 6, 2005 10:22 AMThe East is falling faster because it experienced fifty years of more rigorous secular rationalism.
Whether true or not (for example,the Poles led by the RCC could be said to have succesfully resisted Soviet secularization) that statement begs the question as to why devoutly religious Muslims are experiencing a faster drop in birth rates.
Posted by: daniel duffy at May 6, 2005 10:41 AMdaniel: It is far, far too simplistic to "blame urbanization". Some quick googling will show that the case is much more complicated. Here is something I found discussing "Urbanization and Urban Research in the Arab World": http://www.unesco.org/most/khareng.htm
You'll notice that Tunisia does not have a particularly high urbanization level. Also the text discusses the fact that most of Tunisia's urban settings are small cities and towns, not sprawling megalopolises, so I doubt it is exorbitantly expensive to support children in such a setting.
In fact, in the Middle East it appears to be generally true that countries with very high levels of urbanization (such as Saudi Arabia) have the highest fertility levels. Of course some of these countries have cultures that are extremely limiting (to say the least) in their options for women.
My admittedly non-expert position is that the dominant factor behind most of the global fertility drop is improvements in public health, so that in order to be confident of having 3-ish kids survive to adulthood, you only need to have 3-ish kids, not twice that number. Another major factor would likely be opening up economic opportunities for women (don't give them condoms--give them the chance to get a job if they so desire).
However, as I speculated on a previous thread, I think dropping the next bit to below replacement requires additional cultural shifts devalueing children.
Posted by: b at May 6, 2005 11:45 AMdaniel:
Because theirs were higher and their societies have generally become too ugly to bring kids into as well.
Posted by: oj at May 6, 2005 11:52 AMMy admittedly non-expert position is that the dominant factor behind most of the global fertility drop is improvements in public health, so that in order to be confident of having 3-ish kids survive to adulthood, you only need to have 3-ish kids, not twice that number.
Give that man a cigar. Excellent point. Whenever someone notes for example that women in colonial America (or some other pre-industrial society) had 8 or 10 kids, they should also say how many survived into adulthood.
More than two.
Posted by: oj at May 6, 2005 12:52 PMAnd since the trend will be away from urbanization that effect--if there is one--will be nullified.
Posted by: oj at May 6, 2005 12:53 PM"Islam though has the basis, unlike secular Europe, for building a successful society."
That's a hopeful theory although I haven't seen a basis for it yet. Its just as likely that Islam will insure that Europe hits bottom and stays there.
Posted by: jefferson park at May 6, 2005 3:51 PM