May 19, 2005

THE WAITING IS THE HARDEST PART...UNTIL THE IMPLOSION:

Domestic threats to China's rise (Adam Wolfe, 5/20/05, Asia Times)

While the US, India, Russia and Japan may maneuver to limit China's expanded reach, there are several domestic liabilities that could potentially limit Beijing's ability to gain its presumed position in the region.

The division between the rapid economic rise of China's east and the slow growth of the west has left the country divided. The environmental destruction caused by the centrally planned economy, and that the market economy has ignored or made worse, may cap China's economy before it reaches its full maturation. The social havoc that centrally planned birth control and an aging society may produce in the near future could force huge changes in the government's role in private life, or worse it could create a backlash against the government. Generational and ideological unrest could boil over as new technologies link disparate groups together.

Perhaps the gravest threat is the rapid growth of the eastern coast, generated by cheap loans from poorly managed state banks, which could potentially undermine the booming economy. Any one of these liabilities could slow China's growth; all of them could sink China's rise. How China deals with these challenges in the near future will be a better determinate of its future role in the world than Beijing's current geopolitical maneuvering as it continues to play the "waiting game".


You mean a country that isn't really one, which is governed by communists, which officially adopted a culture of death, and which is surrounded by superior states is not only not a long term threat to the U.S. but is a short term threat to itself? It's almost as if what we learned in the 20th Century remained true.

Posted by Orrin Judd at May 19, 2005 9:06 AM
Comments

Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers, "The Waiting" (1981), from the album Hard Promises.

Do I win a book? :-)

Posted by: Mike Morley at May 19, 2005 9:51 AM

C'mon, that's a gimme.

Posted by: oj at May 19, 2005 9:55 AM

China is surrounded by superior States ?

North Korea ?
Japan, about which you say much harsher things ?
Russia, which is losing about a million people a year ?
Vietnam ?

India, Taiwan, and South Korea are superior, and roughly encircle China, but the latter two are gnats comparatively.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at May 19, 2005 3:50 PM

Lots of wishful thinking in this.

Many here in the West tend to grossly underestimate the non rebellious nature of the Chinese. Assuming that temporal authority is in place (which it is) the Chinese tend toward normalcy not rebellion. The truly remarkable thing about both the 1911 Revolution and the Communist Revolution is that they happened at all. For the former, the de facto self destruction of the monarchy (see the move "The Last Emperor"...) opened the door, not to mention the shame of defeat in the Sino-Japanese War of 15 years prior. As for the latter, Stalin's Icebreaker program was quite successful, with WW2 so shattering the fabric of Chinese society in the short term that Mao was easily able to move in for the kill. But today? China is at its most developed, organized and ascendent point, with respect to other countries, since the 1700s. Modern analysts really have nothing to compare today's China with in any meaningful context. And with the overt Axis involving Russia, Pakistan, Iran and the like, one would have to go back to the Mongol Empire to find a time when such an Axis existed in Asia.

Posted by: Steve Sadlov at May 19, 2005 4:29 PM

the Chinese aren't unique.

Posted by: oj at May 19, 2005 5:18 PM

Yes, Japan, the United States, Australia, etc. Taiwan is mightier than China.

Posted by: oj at May 19, 2005 5:20 PM

Taiwan is mightier than China.

Right.
I'm sure that there must be SOME way in which "mighty" can be defined that makes your assessment true.

More religious freedom in Taiwan ?

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at May 19, 2005 7:33 PM

I agree with OJ's analysis, and certainly welcome his recognition of Japan as country with an ebullient spirit and future.

Posted by: h-man at May 19, 2005 7:34 PM

Michael:

They already have a functional political, economic and social system. China has none of the three. They're allied with the hyperpower and they'd win a war. How do you define mighty?

Posted by: oj at May 19, 2005 8:19 PM

I wouldn't say that the Chinese are non-rebellious. Certainly they are not ungovernable and prone to long periods of stability, but there are plenty of examples of rebellion and revolution. The entire theory of the Mandate of Heaven relies upon mass rebellion to end a Dynasty.

One reason that China cracks down on Falun Gong so much is its similarity to previous mystical revolutionary groups like the Yellow Turbans, the Red Eyebrows, the Taiping or the Boxers. Besides those of course is a history of warlordism as local governors assume power under a weak central government.

So far the Communist Party has been able to keep order, and they may still be able to do so in the coming years. This is not guaranteed though. There is massive corruption and huge disparities within China. At this point in time, I believe it is just as likely history will judge this as acounterpart to America's Gilded Age or the the years of the last Shah in Iran.

Posted by: Chris Durnell at May 20, 2005 4:44 PM

The Zhonghua Renmin Gongheguo has a functioning political system, albeit one that is very troubled. Although we PREDICT some sort of civil war or other massive upheaval in the PRC, they may in fact manage to work it out fairly smoothly.
As far as the economy goes, China is growing like gangbusters, so Taiwan cannot claim superiority there.

Taiwan could repel an invasion, which is not the same as "winning a war". The PRC could possibly, if they really wanted to, take Taiwan, but Taiwan could never take China.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at May 20, 2005 6:14 PM

You're essentially using the "best fighter pound-for-pound" or the "per-capita" argument.
That's fine as far as it goes, and often illuminating, but "mighty" usually describes something that is strong in an absolute sense.

Thus, the elephant is "mighty", vs the ant, which is actually much stronger, pound for pound.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at May 20, 2005 6:18 PM

If Taiwan would win the fight--as they would--then they're pretty mighty.

Posted by: oj at May 20, 2005 7:28 PM
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