May 4, 2005
THE LEFT WILL HAVE A PARTY:
Labour fears realised as voters switch to the Lib Dems (HAMISH MACDONELL, 5/04/05, The Scotsman)
LABOUR is poised for its worst general election result in Scotland for 13 years as voters desert the party for the Liberal Democrats, according to a new opinion poll for The Scotsman published today.The ICM survey found 39 per cent support for Labour in Scotland, which represents a drop of five per cent on the party’s showing in 2001 and its lowest share of the vote since 1992.
The poll suggests that Labour voters are switching to the Liberal Democrats in large numbers and that Labour will lose three Scottish seats to Charles Kennedy’s party when voters go to the polls tomorrow.
If the results are matched in the election, Labour would win just 40 seats north of the Border, 16 fewer than four years ago and six fewer than the notional result from 2001 when boundary changes are taken into account.
This is why the Democrats can't risk running a morally serious Third Way candidate--their Lib Dems would be the Green Party. Posted by Orrin Judd at May 4, 2005 8:08 AM
Disagree. The Liberal Democrats have been a large party for decades now even though they've never been in the running to form a govt. Also, they have a pedigree of being one of the original political parties of Britain. Greens do not have that credibility, and many of the serious leftists still detest the Greens for spoiling Al Gore in 2000 and electing Bush. OJ's analysis also ignores the large likelihood that Blair will still win, but he'll just have a slightly reduced majority from what was an obscenely high majority and thus could only go down.
Posted by: Chris Durnell at May 4, 2005 11:39 AMAlso, the Lib Dems have had a presence in the Celtic backwoods since forever, even in the darkest days of the old Liberal Party they still held seats in places like Inverness and Orkney.
It would not surprise me if Blair's margin actually increases.
Posted by: bart at May 4, 2005 1:48 PMThe far left is so angry, I don't think we'll see a green party in the next election as the far left will hope they are electing a stealth candidate that will talk center and govern left. If the Dems lose in '08 or if they win but govern from the center, then they might begin to splinter.
Posted by: Pat H at May 4, 2005 2:14 PMThe US is not the UK. The Democrats are the left wing party. Their problem is that without any centrists they will only be viable in Berserkly, the Upper Left Side of Manhattan (only if the Dominicans are districted out), and the peoples republic of Cambridge MA. Others will take over the shell of the Democrat Party and throw the leftists out.
Posted by: Robert Schwartz at May 4, 2005 5:31 PM