May 19, 2005
MORE HINDRANCE THAN HELP:
Blowing up an assumption (Robert A. Pape, MAY 19, 2005, The New York Times)
Over the past two years, I have compiled a database of every suicide bombing and attack around the globe from 1980 through 2003 - 315 in all. This includes every episode in which at least one terrorist killed himself or herself while trying to kill others, but excludes attacks authorized by a national government (like those by North Korean agents against South Korea). The data show that there is far less of a connection between suicide terrorism and religious fundamentalism than most people think.
The leading instigators of suicide attacks are the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka, a Marxist-Leninist group whose members are from Hindu families but who are adamantly opposed to religion. This group committed 76 of the 315 incidents, more than Hamas (54) or Islamic Jihad (27).
Even among Muslims, secular groups like the Kurdistan Workers' Party, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and the Al Aksa Martyrs Brigades account for more than a third of suicide attacks.
What nearly all suicide terrorist attacks actually have in common is a specific secular and strategic goal: to compel modern democracies to withdraw military forces from territory that the terrorists consider to be their homeland. Religion is often used as a tool by terrorist organizations in recruiting and in seeking aid from abroad, but is rarely the root cause.
Three general patterns in the data support these conclusions.
First, nearly all suicide terrorist attacks - 301 of the 315 in the period I studied - took place as part of organized political or military campaigns.
Second, democracies are uniquely vulnerable to suicide terrorists; America, France, India, Israel, Russia, Sri Lanka and Turkey have been the targets of almost every suicide attack of the past two decades.
Third, suicide terrorist campaigns are directed toward a strategic objective: From Lebanon to Israel to Sri Lanka to Kashmir to Chechnya, the sponsors of every campaign - 18 organizations in all - are seeking to establish or maintain political self-determination.
this is where our underestimation of the Shi'ite thirst for democracy has been most harmful--had we withdrawn in late Summer/early Fall 2003 Iraq would be further along the road to normalcy. Posted by Orrin Judd at May 19, 2005 9:54 AM
The article completely misses the point about "suicide attacks" while even admitting that the leaders "use religion".
It isn't about the "goals" of the attackers, it's about the psycho-religiois make up of the people who are blowing themselves up.
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That said, if I were living in world like Orwell's 1984, the thought would be occuring to even me.
In retrospect, it must be a combination of the make up of the bombers and the perception of the "world" they inhabit.
Posted by: BB at May 19, 2005 10:24 AMThe leading instigators of suicide attacks are the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka, a Marxist-Leninist group whose members are from Hindu families but who are adamantly opposed to religion.
I think it'd be more accurate to say that Marxist-Leninism is a religion.
Posted by: Mike Morley at May 19, 2005 10:32 AMAgree with Mike but think OJ's comment is totally unrealistic. There would be a murderous civil war going on right now and we would be hanging our heads in shame, had we withdrawn. The end result could well have been talibanation or dictatorship unless we moved back in.
Posted by: Genecis at May 19, 2005 10:48 AMThere is a civil war going on.
Posted by: oj at May 19, 2005 10:55 AMWithdrawal would have been disastrous. But we should have had elections at least a year earlier than we did, to allow the legit gov't to have consolidated its power before the terrorists became so strong. As it is, they're playing catch up. Of course, we should have eliminated Baby Assad and the mullahs as well, since they're the reason Iraq is so dangerous.
The article seems to be missing the vital difference between the leaders of terrorist groups, who have clear political objectives (and thank you very much, Europe, for encouraging them for the past 3+ decades), and the pathetic dupes they get to blow themselves up. They simultaneously stoke the resentment of the average citizen while doing nothing to improve social conditions, so they have plenty of cannon fodder. As has been noted often before, Arafat, Osama, etc., don't 'martyr' themselves, but they sure talk about how great it is.
Posted by: b at May 19, 2005 11:17 AMWell I read the rest of the article and I'm not really sure what Professor Pape's point is. So what, what difference does it make. We still have to wipe them all out anyway. I also don't understand this line:
"First, nearly all suicide terrorist attacks...took place as part of organized political or military campaigns."
So religious zealots can't organize political and military campaigns?
Posted by: Shelton at May 19, 2005 11:37 AMShelton:
Just remove the reason for them and they fall apart.
Posted by: oj at May 19, 2005 12:08 PMIndeed, Marxism, like Darwinism and Freudianism, is essentially religious though framed as anti-.
Posted by: oj at May 19, 2005 12:31 PMIf everything is religion, then nothing is, Orrin.
Might as well be a pantheist.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at May 19, 2005 9:24 PMharry:
Everything is, it's just that only a couple of religions are right.
Posted by: oj at May 19, 2005 10:42 PM