May 17, 2005

FUTURES:

Dollar's bedeviling rebound (Jonathan Fuerbringer, MAY 17, 2005, The New York Times

The stubbornly resilient dollar has cost Warren Buffett a lot of money this year and has disappointed many other investors who thought that a weaker dollar would be their friend.

Buffett's bet against the dollar resulted in a $307 million loss for his company, Berkshire Hathaway, in the first quarter.

It also hurt many Americans who invested in stocks and bonds abroad.

In France, the CAC 40 stock index is up 5 percent this year, but that becomes a 2.2 percent loss once it is translated into dollars. In Japan, the 4.7 percent decline in the Nikkei 225 index expands to a loss of 8.7 percent in dollar terms.

What is an investor to do? There is no easy answer, unless one is, like Buffett, in there for the long term. Using foreign-exchange contracts, he had a $21.8 billion bet against the dollar at the end of the first quarter. Buffett, a billionaire investor, has also profited from foreign-exchange gains on foreign bonds.

The best advice is to stick with the long-term bet as long as one still believes in it.

And, in the long term, who can believe that Europe and Japan will matter much or believe that the PRC will even exist, nevermind be where you want your money?

Posted by Orrin Judd at May 17, 2005 7:33 AM
Comments

We are all waiting for the first media report about Warren Buffett, a quarterly business loss of $307 million, and corporate governance & fiduciary responsibility. Will he be sued? Will he be protested? Will he even be questioned? After all, the collapse of Enron was just due to greed, right? But this seems so much more, well, political.

Posted by: jim hamlen at May 17, 2005 8:27 AM

Warren needs to have his sometimes political soulmate, George Soros, get to work on some sort of reverse foreign currency specilation deal to send those rates up instead of down, the way he did in Indonesia in 1998.

Posted by: John at May 17, 2005 8:49 AM

Jim: Most of those suits would have to be brought by stockholders and stockholders in Berkshire Hathaway, current market price $82,500.00, are not likely to sue.

Posted by: David Cohen at May 17, 2005 9:13 AM

Start losing money and they're the most likely to sue.

Posted by: oj at May 17, 2005 9:43 AM

If Buffett is wrong, the market will punish him. Investors, particularly the institutionals who purchase $82500 shares of stock by the lot, are quick to react to irrationality or incompetence. If he fouls up too much, the stockholders will vote him out. If he makes it apparent that he is more interested in scoring political points or massaging his ego than in making money, he'll get dumped or his stock will turn into junk.

AOL did dump Ted Turner.

Posted by: bart at May 17, 2005 9:57 AM

--The stubbornly resilient dollar --

DAMN THE US!

We're supposed to be sinking so the NYT can sound superior and European.

Posted by: Sandy P. at May 17, 2005 10:51 AM

Besides, $307m is chump change.

He needs to lose a lot more.

Warren isn't betting against the $, he's betting against me and the American people. We've had our moments, but our overall track record is pretty good.

Posted by: Sandy P. at May 17, 2005 10:53 AM

Berkshire A is down 10.27% from its 52-week high. Berkshire B is down 10.23%.

If Bill Lerach smells victory ($$$), he would sue.

Posted by: ratbert at May 17, 2005 11:44 AM

Jim: there is no law suit, management has a right to be wrong as long as they are informed and not self-enriching. Buffett has been wrong before, he once took a big position in USAir. But as long as he is not lining his own pocket, there is no legal liability.

Posted by: Robert Schwartz at May 17, 2005 12:39 PM

It's not all HB's money, some of it is personal, I think.

Posted by: Sandy P. at May 17, 2005 1:32 PM

Robert - My understanding of the law - limited, I'll admit - is that it is actionable if it's a recklessly irresponsible decision. In other words, the management has a fiduciary responsibility to make some kind of half-assed effort to protect the stockholders' investment. I believe this principle is well-established in precedent.

I'll let someone who knows more correct me if I'm wrong.

Posted by: Tom at May 17, 2005 1:43 PM

Guys:

I agree a 10% drop isn't much. No complaint, as it were. But what about a 25% drop, where the loss is based pretty much solely on currency hedges or 'bets' that aren't working out? If the rest of the "company" is earning money, then is there an action? What if Berkshire has to meet the equivalent of a margin call? I'm no expert, but I doubt if Buffett has to profit personally before there is at least the possibility of a filing. Cases like these (however spurious) made Bill Lerach a rich and powerful man (and an FOB, for a little while).

Ben & Jerry don't run their company anymore, and this is one of the reasons why.

Posted by: jim hamlen at May 17, 2005 2:12 PM

This is hugely oversimplified, but there are two main kinds of suits against corporations for losing money:

1. Federal securities law suits. Under SEC Rule 10b-5, adopted pursuant to power delegated to it pursuant to the 1934 Securities Exchange Act (not to be confused with the 1933 Securities Act), the SEC says that it is illegal to engage in fraud in connection with the sale of a security. This has been held to mean that a company that makes a false statement of material fact is liable to those who bought (if the statement was overly optimistic) or sold (if the statement was overly pessimistic) between the time the statement was made and the time it was corrected. There are also tag-along state law claims made in these suits, but they get subsumed in the federal law claim.

2. State derivative law suits. Corporations are creatures of state law. Under state law, the management of the corporation is the purview of the board of directors, which manages the corporation for the good of the shareholders. Shareholders who are not directors generally can't act on behalf of the corporation, and if they're not happy can just sell their shares. The one exception is the shareholder derivative suit, in which the shareholder goes to court (usually the Delaware Chancellory Court) and asks for permission to sue on behalf of the corporation because the board of directors won't. Usually, the people being sued in the derivative suit are the officers and/or directors of the corporation for wasting corporate assets, or self-dealing, or otherwise violating their fiduciary duty to the corporation. These are not easy cases to win, because the court's generally, and the Delaware court in particular, defer to the board's judgment as to what's best for the shareholders. A common derivative suit occurs after a hostile takeover has been announced. The shareholders sue the directors on behalf of the corporation arguing that the best interests of the shareholders demand that the offer be accepted, and that the board is/will refuse in order to entrench themselves in their cushy jobs.

Without having done any research at all (and, by the way, this does not contitute legal advice), it is unlikely that BH is liable for either type of suit, unless it could be shown that Buffet didn't actually believe that the dollar would fall, but made the investment anyway for some other reason.

Posted by: David Cohen at May 18, 2005 8:24 AM
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