DEJA-VU ALL OVER AGAIN

Europe is talking Iran around (Ray Takeyh, International Herald Tribune, May 6th, 2005)

In recent weeks, it appears that France has edged closer to accepting Iran's concessions. "Jacques Chirac is the one who's taking the Iranian proposal under consideration," one European diplomat declared.

Even the more recent Iranian defiance has invited further European diplomacy in terms of pressuring the United States to offer more concessions. A European diplomat visiting Washington stressed that "we would enhance these chances" for negotiating success "if we could add U.S. carrots."

ElBaradei has followed suit, saying, "I think in diplomacy if you offer more, you get more." In a clever move, Iranians have used their obduracy to provoke the Europeans to put more pressure on Washington than on Tehran.

It is likely that the positions of Europe and Iran will further converge, as both parties have an interest in defusing tensions and avoiding a crisis at the United Nations. Iran's diplomacy has already diminished the prospect of multilateral economic sanctions being enacted by the Security Council. So long as Iran accepts demands by the nuclear agency for further inspections and negotiates with the Europeans, it is unlikely that a consensus against Iran will evolve in the United Nations.

As with Iraq, the United States is now facing the prospect of making claims regarding a nation's proliferation tendencies that the UN inspection arm is unwilling to validate. It is hard to see how the European states, much less China and Russia - two of Iran's most reliable commercial partners - will be willing to coerce and sanction Iran over the issue of a limited enrichment program.

One reason Iran's diplomacy has succeeded is the inflexibility and lack of imagination of American policy. As the Europe-Iran negotiations progressed, America stayed on the sidelines, periodically criticizing the European negotiators and threatening Iran with military reprisals.

We've got a great plot line for a thriller. Iran threatens, Europe caves, the UN talks and everybody blames the U.S. Nah, no one would ever buy that.