May 6, 2005
COME VISIT THE COUSINS:
Bruised Blair looks to the future: A disheartened PM, shaken by public hostility during campaign, now faces a number of difficult decisions (Patrick Wintour and Ewen MacAskill, May 6, 2005, The Guardian)
Tony Blair has been shocked by the personal hostility shown towards him during the election campaign and is doubtful that he can win back the trust of the British people, some of his closest political colleagues admit.They believe his mood, which will in part be affected by the size of Labour's majority, will add to the sense that power is leaving the prime minister and shifting towards the chancellor, Gordon Brown. One solace is that his relationship with Mr Brown is now at its best for many years.
Earlier this year, Mr Blair spoke of his difficult relationship with the British public but expressed optimism that it could be mended.
After a month in which he has been harangued about Iraq on the street, in TV studios and countless interviews, as well as branded a liar, not just by the leader of the opposition, but also by ordinary members of the public, those close to him said the criticism had struck home.
Some say he has recognised that he is unlikely to recover popularity.
"For a man who likes to be liked, this is difficult," said one friend. "It has been a very tough campaign. The backdrop of attacks from the families of servicemen was grim."
Plans during the election campaign to make the moral case for New Labour, or to set out a clear vision of a third term in the public services, became muffled by the need to drive so hard on the economy.
Mr Blair had also planned to make a "visionary" foreign policy speech during the campaign setting out the case for his interventionist policy on weapons of mass destruction, international interventionism and the government's G8 agenda. But the speech was shelved at the insistence of his campaign team.
His wife will be resistant, but Mr. Blair needs to turn the government over to Gordon Brown and come to America for a few years, where he's nearly as well regarded as his conservative predecessors: Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher. Together, he, Bill Clinton, and the Bushes could accomplish remarkable things. Posted by Orrin Judd at May 6, 2005 8:27 AM
One story that hasn't been discussed yet-- though will be as the results continue to come in-- is the utter demolishment of the UUP, and the continued weakening of the SDLP. The center is weakening, Sinn Fein and the DUP are taking control in Northern Ireland. What has this "peace process" wrought?
Posted by: John Thacker at May 6, 2005 1:22 PMThe chours lyric to "Big Yellow Taxi" might be something for Labour to remember, once Blair is gone and they start tacking back towards the left.
(There's also a post today at Powerline noting that the drop in Labour's vote of roughly 4 1/2 percent almost exactly matched the rise in the LDP's share of the vote in this election. That may show how much Blair's support for the Iraq war and the WOT in general actually cost him, which is far less than what the media is trying to say it cost him.)
Posted by: John at May 6, 2005 1:35 PMAnd probably close to what the war cost W too.
Posted by: oj at May 6, 2005 1:47 PMWhich of course is what political capital is for -- you spend it to do what may be unpopular things. The key is to spend it at a time you've got enough in the bank so you still have enough of a cushion to win re-election. Bush and Blair understood this, while Clinton valued high poll numbers as an end in itself, or as the path to a favorable legacy, as opposed to it being a means to get important things done that may end up costing you votes at the polls.
Posted by: John at May 6, 2005 2:00 PMMr. Judd;
Blair may be willing to work for democracy, but based on his domestic policies he has no interest in liberty, in contrast to Thatcher. I also find it odd that, given how Blair has unconcernedly tossed away centuries of tradition whenever it suits his fancy, that he's such a favorite of yours. Are you hoping he can come over here and dispose of most of our traditions and liberty as well?
No, the UN's.
Posted by: oj at May 6, 2005 2:44 PMBill Clinton?
Posted by: Tom at May 6, 2005 5:10 PMJohn Thacker,
I didn't pick that up. Shouldn't the economic prosperity that Ulster is experiencing be driving voters towards the center rather than away from it? Or have the actions of the IRA become so outrageous that one's position on them supersedes all else?
Posted by: bart at May 6, 2005 6:25 PM