May 23, 2005
BY ST. EDSEL, I DENY THEE HYBRID!:
Can hybrids save US from foreign oil?: Red-hot demand for Priuses causes doubters to take second look. (Mark Clayton, 5/19/05, The Christian Science Monitor)
The growing enthusiasm for hybrids is rattling the faith of America's automakers, who have long believed that consumers don't care about fuel efficiency. And it has opened the door to a new theory that hybrid cars - long predicted to be a niche market and a way station to future hydrogen autos - are themselves the answer to revolutionize the fleet and trim the nation's surging dependence on foreign oil.For proponents of energy independence in the United States, the current level of dependency is worrisome. Last year, 56 percent of the nation's oil - some 11 million barrels a day - came from abroad. That's far more than the one-third share imported during the first oil crisis of the 1970s. And it's halfway to the two-thirds share projected for 2025, if nothing changes.
To reduce that dependence will require a massive modernization of America's transportation fleet, especially more efficient passenger cars and light trucks. So are hybrids up to the task?
Most auto analysts still say no, since an enormous number of hybrids would have to be sold over more than a decade to have a real impact. Still, demand for hybrids, the Prius in particular, is so strong that customers are waiting weeks to get one. Some used 2004 Priuses are selling for thousands of dollars more than the cost of a new one. On Tuesday, Toyota announced it would begin building its first North American hybrid car in 2006 at its Georgetown, Ky., plant.
The numbers are turning some heads.
"I was a huge skeptic," says Walter McManus, an auto industry researcher at the University of Michigan's Transportation Research Institute in Ann Arbor. "But I've basically crossed over to the dark side. You can't argue with the market reaction."
The Right will. It ignores markets if they disagree with ideology. Posted by Orrin Judd at May 23, 2005 2:45 PM
What's not to like about hybrids?
They sure beat forcing the sheeple onto trains! :)
Posted by: kevin whited at May 23, 2005 3:17 PM"You can't argue with the market reaction."
"The Right will. It ignores markets if they disagree with ideology."
Is this intended as a compliment or insult?
Posted by: Tom at May 23, 2005 3:35 PMSome used 2004 Priuses are selling for thousands of dollars more than the cost of a new one.
Since the rational reason for buying a hybrid is to save money on gas, the folks ignoring the market for reasons of ideology (or aesthetics, you sort out the difference) here are the ones lining up to pay extra. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
Posted by: joe shropshire at May 23, 2005 3:41 PMthat is the market.
Posted by: oj at May 23, 2005 3:45 PMNo, that's a market segment.
Posted by: joe shropshire at May 23, 2005 3:58 PMAs a wise man once said, The Right ignores markets if they disagree with ideology.
Posted by: oj at May 23, 2005 4:03 PMRemember all those folks who locked in their long term natural gas heating contracts just as the price of heating oil experienced it's last collapse. I wouldn't be surprised to see the same for gasoline as hybrid buyers are bidding up prices for their new cars. That's how markets work and it doesn't matter what the buyer's motives are or how well thought out. Things will work out ok as long as the oj's of the world are kept far enough away from developing tax policy for the rest of us.
Posted by: Tom C., Stamford,Ct. at May 23, 2005 4:09 PMThe extent to which it's a fashion statement can still be measured by the lack of a waiting list for the Honda Civic hybrid, which works just the same as the Prius but looks like the normal gas version.
Posted by: ZF at May 23, 2005 5:27 PMAnd OJ is nothing if not a man of the right.
Posted by: David Cohen at May 23, 2005 5:53 PMDavid-
I thought he was a 'third wayer'(whatever that is).
Posted by: Tom C., Stamford, Ct. at May 23, 2005 6:55 PMTom: I'm trying to be nice.
Posted by: David Cohen at May 23, 2005 7:01 PMThe pee in the pudding being, hybrids don't get the mileage they are rated for. It turns out the way the fuel ratings are computed don't correspond to real world driving and the true mileage figure is barely higher than the gas-equipped model of the same car. Diesels on the other hand get excellent mileage, but suffer from bad PR. My 7000 lb pickup truck, powered by a Cummins turbo diesel, gets 19 mpg. And can hold six people. And tow a 5 ton trailer.
Posted by: Pete at May 23, 2005 7:09 PMI love the smell of diesel in the morning. It smells like...victory.
Posted by: joe shropshire at May 23, 2005 7:39 PMHybrids, riiiiiiiight. I've seen this movie before, and I know how it ends. In the late 70's, diesel cars were all the rage among the cutting-edge folks. Diesel fuel was cheaper than gas, and they were gonna save a whole lotta money. Thsy just had to put up with the smell and the roughness and the higher purchase price. I has a co-worker who bought two.
A few years later, you couldn't give them away. And I had a good laugh at my neighbor down the street, when his fuel turned into jello in his tank, with the car sitting overnight in the driveway in a -10 degree F Chicago winter. Seems fuel pumps aren't designed to pump jello.
Posted by: ray at May 23, 2005 8:36 PMGermany taxed diesel fuel favorably to gasoline and in the ensuing 5 years diesel car sales increased 30 %. The market works and prices are prices Tom, taxes or not.
P.S. In Germany diesels were previously derided as "Farmer's" cars. So much for boutique considerations. I drove diesels until NH raised the price of fuel by charging road tax for the first time; Put 300,000 miles on one. They also keep down the bugs. Have a diesel tractor and a diesel engine in my sailboat and wouldn't even consider gasoline alternatives, unless they raised the price of fuel by charging road taxes for their fuel, although Safety is an additional consideration. So put that in your tail pipe and smoke it ... one of the old drawbacks.
Posted by: Genecis at May 23, 2005 9:25 PMPrius Shmius, the dumb rich girls on my street would double their mpg if they traded their Suburbans for BMW 745s.
Posted by: Robert Schwartz at May 24, 2005 12:52 AMOf course prices are prices, if they are determined by suply and demand within a franework of the free flow of goods and services. Prices can also be determined by commitees or individuals through add on taxes to pay for the maintaintence of ifrastructure which enhances thr free flow of goods and services. Once they start being used for social engineerinf purposes or in the name of directing behavior in order to satisfy preferences based on weak science or some other ideological purpose the economic effect creates unforseen results since the prefernces sometime have no basis other than the vision of those commitees or individuals. Governments are the most inefficient user of resources, given. Its powers should be limited to what only it can do. Remaking society along the lines of some academic or elitist vision by overriding the demands of the marketplace is not one of them. Is the free flow of goods and services a social good or not? Should the power of the state be used to enhance or restrict such mobility? If an alternative to the internal combustion engine were economically feasible would it be more widely used?
Posted by: Tom C., Stamford, Ct. at May 24, 2005 6:16 AM" Once they start..." You're several thousand years late to stop it.
Posted by: oj at May 24, 2005 7:35 AMPeople should know better by now.
Posted by: Tom C., Stamford,Ct. at May 24, 2005 9:00 AMHybrids aren't like diesel because it does not require any change in driver behavior. They don't need to worry that the fuel smells bad or gets them dirty. More important, they don't have to worry which gas station carries it, because they still use only gas.
The issue with the govt calculating mileage wrong needs to be fixed, but does not change the advantages many drivers can get with a hybrid. It won't be good for everyone, but certainly a lot. The people I know who have them continue to report 48-60 MPG as opposed to the 25-35 they normally would get.
The technology will improve, the mileage will increase, and economies of scale will drive down their cost. I would not be surprised if hybrids make up a significant percentage of the market in 5 years.
Posted by: Chris Durnell at May 24, 2005 12:27 PMSo, the heavy handed, top-down, planning and direction of the populace might not be needed after all? Natural prices work if allowed to.
Posted by: Tom C., Stamford,Ct. at May 24, 2005 12:38 PMhttp://www.wired.com/news/autotech/0,2554,63413,00.html?tw=wn_story_related
"Data from independent product-testing organization Consumer Reports indicates that hybrid cars get less than 60 percent of EPA estimates while navigating city streets. In Consumer Reports' real-world driving test, the Civic Hybrid averaged 26 mpg in the city, while the Toyota Prius averaged 35 mpg, much less than their respective EPA estimates of 47 and 60 mpg. Hybrid cars performed much closer to EPA estimates in Consumer Reports' highway tests.
Consumer Reports' senior auto test engineer Gabriel Shenhar says that while the EPA test is a lab simulation, Consumer Reports puts the cars on the streets and measures the fuel consumed to more accurately reflect gas mileage."
As what? Real prices conveying real information regarding relative scarcity? Nonsense.
Posted by: Tom C., Stamford, Ct. at May 24, 2005 4:57 PMNatural
Posted by: oj at May 24, 2005 5:11 PM