May 16, 2005
ALWAYS BET ON GREEN:
Daily Forex Commentary (Jack Crooks, 5/13/05, Asia Times)
Oh Mr Buffet! Mr Buffet! Where are you?Yes, we are waiting for the sage to publicly capitulate to the dollar trend. And frankly, we can hardly contain our glee in anticipation of such an event. Based on Mr Buffet's replication appeal, his capitulation will probably lead to capitulation on the part of his bridge playing buddy - you know, the one with the glasses - Bill something or other.
The tanking of commodities on Thursday probably had something to do with the dollar rising. After all, commodities have represented a real store of global purchasing power because the major commodities are priced in dollars. A weak dollar means higher commodities prices, assuming everything else remains equal, as the economic textbooks like to say (they use Latin, however, when they say it, sounds more impressive). So, everything else remaining equal, a strong dollar equals weaker commodities prices. But as we know, in the world of continuously fluctuating prices and expectations about prices based on a future we can only dimly guess at - besides the element of individual human action at a point in time - nothing ever remains equal in the real economic world.
Posted by Orrin Judd at May 16, 2005 7:26 AM
The Sage of Omaha wrong?
If the dollar keeps going up he'll soon have to take a job as a greeter at Wal-Mart.
Posted by: H.D. Miller at May 16, 2005 8:33 AMGreenspan should keep raising rates until Buffet gives up meeting margin calls on his long franc Euro positions.
Between this and the reinsurance investigations, 2005 hasn't been a great year for Buffett.
Posted by: John at May 16, 2005 8:49 AMThe dollar is rising? That explains the lack of exchange-rate stories in the media lately...
Posted by: b at May 16, 2005 10:36 AMBob Brinker had a very interesting newsletter last week. If his model is correct, the short-term is looking good for US.
Posted by: Sandy P. at May 16, 2005 10:44 AMBuffet probably started believing the press releases about him. Anyone who thought even 2 years ago that the dollar was going to keep falling forever needs a new job.
Posted by: jim hamlen at May 16, 2005 11:43 AM