YOU KNOW THE DUTCH WILL EUTHANIZE IT:

EU politics: The best laid plans (ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT, 4/15/05)

European leaders are staring down the barrel of a gun, contemplating with growing apprehension the possibility that their plans for an EU constitution are about to be shattered. With France’s referendum on the EU constitution only weeks away, all major opinion polls show the "No" camp in the lead. The Netherlands is due to hold its own referendum three days later, on June 1st. Polls there show a tiny majority in favour of the treaty, but more than two-thirds of voters planning to abstain. In these circumstances it is sensible to ask: what will the EU do if France or the Netherlands votes "No"?

Until recently it was widely assumed that the most significant hurdle for the constitution was the UK. However, attention has now switched to the consequences of a possible French "No" on May 29th. Even if all other countries voted in favour, France is a founder member and the most influential in the EU's development over 50 years; it could not be marginalised as might be the case for the UK, or smaller countries such as Denmark, Ireland, the Czech Republic or Poland, all of which are planning to hold their own votes. A French "No" would effectively kill the constitution. So might a Dutch "No" unless, as seems possible, there is a very low turnout in the referendum.

There’s no question that the failure to ratify the constitution would be a major setback for the EU—the message that Europe’s progress towards a closer political union has been brought to a grinding halt would reverberate around the world. Expect to see a flurry of headlines predicting the ultimate demise of the Union. At the very least a "No" would reinforce the feeling that the EU has lost its sense of direction...

Wouldn't it be news that it ever had a direction?

Posted by Orrin Judd at April 15, 2005 9:04 PM