April 5, 2005
RATTLE AND HMMMM?:
Tory poll surge rattles Labour as battle begins (Peter Riddell, Philip Webster and Gary Duncan, 4/05/05, Times of London)
THE Conservatives have dramatically closed the gap on Labour as Tony Blair launches his attempt to win a third term.A Populus poll for The Times today and three other polls boost Michael Howard as the Prime Minister goes to Buckingham Palace this morning to seek a dissolution of Parliament. All four point to solidifying Tory support.
The Times poll puts the Conservatives up three points to 35 per cent, with Labour slipping two to 37, and the Liberal Democrats down one at 19. The others show similar trends, suggesting that any gain from Gordon Brown’s Budget has been short-lived. An ICM survey in The Guardian puts Labour on 37 and the Conservatives on 34. NOP for The Independent puts Labour on 36, the Tories on 33 and the Lib Dems on 21 and a MORI poll in The Financial Times shows Labour’s lead down by 1 point.
Although the polls still point to a comfortable Labour victory, the narrowing gap may unnerve Labour politicians, particularly as they coincide with unfavourable economic data.
Mr. Blair has gotten so far Right of his party they only tolerate because he can win, why are they keeping him if he's become a liability? Posted by Orrin Judd at April 5, 2005 12:00 AM
Because they're stuck with him until after the election?
Posted by: James Haney at April 5, 2005 1:43 AMBritish polling data has underrated incumbents for about two decades now. Their cycle is much faster and, while there is disquiet with Blair, the Tories have demonstrated nothing to indicate that they have the requisite ability to govern. My bet is that if anything he will gain seats as the Lib Dems implode.
Posted by: bart at April 5, 2005 6:23 AMI'd like to see the conservatives take back power in England and restore the Thatcher emphasis on open markets, smaller govt, pull away from the EU, etc.
Unfortunately, if Blair is defeated, the MSM will say it was all due to the Iraq war and had nothing to do with domestic British issues like health care.
Posted by: AWW at April 5, 2005 11:27 AMThe Conservative Party as currently constituted is less likely to restore Thatcherism than Blair is. If anything, they are more statist than he is.
Posted by: bart at April 5, 2005 11:40 AM