JUST ANOTHER POLITICAL PARTY:

Hizbullah will emerge a political winner (Nadim Hasbani, April 11, 2005, Daily Star)

Why would Hizbullah disarm peacefully?

The process of Hizbullah's transformation into a political party, to be peaceful, should be based on the idea that Hizbullah's final goal is influence, power and recognition. Its target is to have the largest political influence possible. Noteworthy that this will allow Iran as well to have the largest influence possible in Lebanon and hence spread its ideology outside its borders. Hizbullah's weapons are a means to reach this goal but are not a goal themselves. As we know, weapons allowed Hizbullah to gain legitimacy as a Lebanese national resistance movement. Moreover the pragmatic evolution and transformation of Hizbullah during the past 10 years allowed recognition by the Lebanese system and gave it a level of relative national respect even among other religious sects. It successfully avoided the risk of being considered as a marginalized, fanatical party labeled as a terrorist movement with only extremist ideals.

Therefore, Hizbullah will want to remain influential and powerful on the Lebanese political scene and among its Shiite supporters. It will not take the risk of being openly considered by the rest of the Lebanese as a bad influence on Lebanon. Hizbullah needs to keep its legitimacy and respect (thus its influence). Now that South Lebanon is liberated (Shebaa is another matter), keeping its weapons might lead it to lose popularity, legitimacy and respect, thus influence. The weapons in its possession and its acts of resistance will no longer be a source of respect but will become a source of trouble in the eyes of the majority. Sfeir's request for Hizbullah's disarmament is part of this dynamic where weapons will transform from a source of respect into a source of deligitimization. So in order for the Party of God to remain influential and to preserve its legitimacy it should prove pragmatic once again. This will lead Hizbullah to disarm peacefully and remain very influential as a full part of the Lebanese political equation. Iran in its turn will agree on such a disarmament as long as its influence in Lebanon - through Hizbullah's - is safe.

Finally, it is important the U.S. understands that Hizbullah is not only a so-called terrorist organization but also a major Lebanese political actor. The Hizbullah demonstration in support of Syria caused the party to discredit itself somehow in the eyes of other confessions in Lebanon. Disarmament will allow Hizbullah to regain legitimacy and acceptance in the Lebanese political scene, but only if it is done through a negotiation with domestic actors. If forced by the U.S. to disarm, its legitimacy will increase, thanks to the renewed fight against the U.S. The opposition in turn will be misperceived as pro-U.S. and lose its ability to negotiate a possible disarmament with Hizbullah. Unfortunately the recent explosions in Beirut, Junieh and Dekwaneh neighborhoods, whether ordered by Syria or its Lebanese allies or not, the UN report saying the Lebanese inquiry into the killing of former Premier Rafik Hariri suffered from "serious flaws"... will encourage foreign involvement in Lebanon's current political crisis. If the May elections are postponed, it will represent the perfect justification for such international involvement whether desired and needed by some or not.

Until the power structure is rearranged to their liking there's no reason they should give up theur guns.

Posted by Orrin Judd at April 12, 2005 1:51 PM