HE'LL ALWAYS BE WELCOME HERE:

Blair-U.K.-- is it over? (Martin Walker, 4/5/2005, UPI)

British Prime Minister Tony Blair's bid to become the first Labor Party leader to win a third successive general election suddenly appears almost risky, as British opinion polls agreed he could face a very tight three-way race with the Conservative and Liberal-Democrat parties in the general election that has been called for May 5.

A poll of 1,000 voters who said they were "certain" to vote, conducted by the respected Mori group for Tuesday's Financial Times, found Blair's party had been narrowly overtaken by the Conservatives, who have been out of power since 1997. Those "certain to vote" preferred the conservatives by a 39-34 margin. The Conservatives also had a one-point lead over Labor, 34-33, in the NOP poll published in Tuesday's Independent newspaper.

But most polls of all registered voters suggested that on a high turnout, Blair could expect to win, though with a total of seats in parliament much reduced from the landslide majority of 161 seats (out of 659) he won four years ago. The turnout will therefore be all-important, as Blair's party strains to persuade its apathetic supporters to go to the polling booths.

This will also affect Blair's political future. If he is re-elected with a majority of 50 seats or less, he may well face an internal challenge from Gordon Brown, his powerful chancellor of the exchequer (the quaint medieval name for the finance minister).

Easy to see him winning narrowly and then being discarded by a party he's always disliked anyway.

Posted by Orrin Judd at April 6, 2005 12:00 AM