CAN'T BE BRUTAL ENOUGH:

Fallout for Syria's Assad could be brutal (DONNA ABU-NASR, 4/25/05, ASSOCIATED PRESS)

Syrian President Bashar Assad will always be remembered as the leader who lost Lebanon, one of the strongest cards Syria ever held in its standoff with Israel.

What was a policy coup 29 years ago for his father, the late President Hafez Assad - the dispatch of troops to a country that Syria had long coveted - turned into a disaster for the son, alienating the world's most powerful nations and threatening his own political future.

On Tuesday, after the last Syrian soldiers left Lebanon, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan dispatched a team to verify the withdrawal. Syria's compliance with the U.N. demand for withdrawal could relieve some of the pressure it has faced since the Feb. 14 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The Lebanese opposition blames Syria and its Lebanese allies for the slaying.

But the pullout won't end all of Syria's woes nor Assad's. It could weaken Assad at home. Or it could give him a chance to move against opponents within his regime by blaming them for a series of recent mistakes.

Either way, Syria faces trouble on all fronts.

It's always seemed unlikely that he'd survive the Bush presidency, but you'd have to say now that it would be unsurprising if he didn't make it to the end of 2005.

Posted by Orrin Judd at April 26, 2005 3:54 PM