BRITAIN BECOMES OHIO:

The hidden election: Parties spend millions on new techniques to target just 800,000 key voters (Tom Baldwin, 4/06/05, Times of London)

Michael Howard has told friends in recent weeks that the “people who matter” may number just 838,000 — less than 2 per cent of voters. If they can be persuaded to switch from Labour in 165 marginals, he says, the Tories would win an overall majority.

Labour is spending roughly two thirds of its £15 million campaign budget on this “ground war”, rather than on billboard and newspaper advertisements. Its national communications centre in Gosforth, Newcastle upon Tyne, has made 2.2 million canvassing calls in the past year. It has also posted seven million items of mail to households since the autumn, at a rate of 1.5 million a month.

The Conservatives’ call centre in Coleshill, near Coventry, has been bombarding the same voters. Although the Tories are sensitive about releasing details, they disclosed last night that they will send out three million mailshots in the next three days, as well as calling 300,000 homes with a recorded message from Mr Howard saying “how important your vote is to the future of this country”.

It ends with the Tory leader saying: “During this campaign, I intend to show there is a better way. I’m Michael Howard. Thank you for listening.”

Telephone canvassing and mailshots are usually tailored towards the concerns of recipients. If a canvasser discovers that a voter is worried about immigration, letters explaining the policy or, more likely, attacking those of rival parties, are sent out. Both Labour and the Conservatives are using expensive “data-capture” computer programs to collate information ranging from postcodes to reading and shopping habits. The Tories say that their “Voter Vault” system can predict correctly an individual’s propensity to vote and support them 70 per cent of the time.

Mr Howard’s decision to concentrate on a few thousand voters in each target seat reflects the success of US Republicans last year in using similar software to win over key voters in swing states such as Florida and Ohio.

One of the keys to GOP success was that it had friends and neighbors calling, not just canned messages.

Posted by Orrin Judd at April 6, 2005 12:00 AM