March 9, 2005
WHAT OTHER OPTION IS THERE?:
Can Hezbollah Go Straight? (MICHAEL YOUNG, 3/09/05, NY Times)
The essence of Hezbollah's problem is its failure to decide on its destiny. Under Syrian rule in Lebanon, the party has been able to play two roles simultaneously: it has worked to integrate itself into the Lebanese body politic, participating successfully in elections; but it has also sought to use its liberation of South Lebanon from Israeli occupation, in May 2000, as a springboard for a seminal regional struggle against the United States and Israel.This duality is the result of a mutation in the Lebanese Shiite vocation. In the late 1970's, under a charismatic cleric, Imam Musa al-Sadr, Shiites began organizing to demand their rightful place in the Lebanese state. Though demographically on the rise, Shiites were stifled by several factors: their relative marginalization in the political elite and domination by feudal leaders; the presence in the predominantly Shiite south and southern suburbs of Beirut of Palestinian movements imposing their political diktat; and underdevelopment.
The catalyst for change was Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 1982. The Palestinians were expelled, allowing a new Shiite leadership to emerge and overthrow, or co-opt, traditional leaders. At the same time, Iran's Revolutionary Guards entered Lebanon's Bekaa Valley and began organizing militant Shiite groups. Iran and Syria would later use these groups against the United States, ultimately forcing a withdrawal of American and other Western forces from Lebanon in 1984.
Behind the scenes, a struggle for the future of Lebanon's Shiites took place. On one side was the Amal movement, headed by the man who is now the speaker in Lebanon's Parliament, Nabih Berri. On the other were the groups that would in the 1980's come together with Iran's help to form Hezbollah. Mr. Berri initially championed the success of Shiite integration into Lebanese political society; Hezbollah came to embody, particularly after the Israeli withdrawal in 2000, a transnational militant ambition. Thanks to Syrian tutelage, but also because of the quality of its leadership, its network of social services, and its military prowess, Hezbollah emerged as the most effective Shiite party, sweeping away the more modest, parochial aims of Amal.
As Syria pulls out of Lebanese affairs the struggle to fill the resulting power vacuum will consume all of Hezbollah's attention and energy. Like Hamas, they're destined to be just another political party in a more or less functioning democracy, a process that will be helped along by the pressure to conform to the liberal standards set by fellow Shi'ites in Iraq, Iran, and elsewhere and the acceptance of peaceful coexistence by former anti-Israeli allies in Palestine, Syria and elsewhere. Posted by Orrin Judd at March 9, 2005 8:59 AM
If you think all these terrorist groups are going to turn into political parties without a bunch of bombs being dropped and bullets going thru heads, you're crazy. Hamas only hope to survive is to turn to the political arena due to the fact that Israel has been cleaning their clock for over three years. Once Hezbolla starts to suffer the same consequences it will be MADE to follow in the same way. The middle east is not eastern europe, or south or central america. Violence is still the currency of change there.
It must be embarrassing for Orrin to have to watch 100K formerly oppressed Shiites demonstrating against democracy (or self-government or whatever it is that's supposed to be the alternative to Syrian despotism in Lebanon these days).
I guess they don't read on his blog where they are really thirsting to be free and democratic.
The ingrates!
Posted by: Harry Eagar at March 9, 2005 2:11 PMHarry! You're Back. How was Hawaii?
OJ: Hezbollah tipped its hand yesterday. They are Syrian Stooges and they like it that way.
I don't think the Syrians are leaving unless we use some airpower to push them along.
Posted by: Robert Schwartz at March 9, 2005 3:31 PMViolence pays, don't it? The extermination campaign against the Lebanese Christians has been so successful that, in fact, Orrin might be right about Hezbollah governing the place.
But as a democracy of some sort, no chance.
I feel the same way as Robert about the Syrians. They are counting on everybody getting interested in something else.
Hey, worked in Darfur!
Posted by: Harry Eagar at March 9, 2005 7:48 PMHarry:
Yes, it will be a rather democratic Shi'a dominated republic in a few years, much like the others to its East.
Posted by: oj at March 9, 2005 8:42 PMNobody in Lebanon has the votes to dominate a democratic state. One reality is that the Christian communities will have significantly less power than they historically were guaranteed. The nation is no more than about 30% Christian today, even if they still retain well over 50% of the GDP. The Shia will have more power, having been effectively left out last time.
The notion that Hezbollah is the spokesman for all Shia is laughable. Think of the non-religious Shia, the majority of that population, people like Fouad Ajami. No shortage of them joined the SLA. In a democratic election, Hezbollah would have a high-water mark of no more than 20% nationally, while other Syrian stooges probably wouldn't get more than 10%. Two of the three main Maronite communities are viscerally anti-Syrian as is the Primate of their church, Archbishop Sfeir. The Sunni obviously want the Syrians out or else the Syrians would not have seen a need to bump off the Sunni Hariri. The Druze are angry, seemingly enough to put aside their centuries old feud with the Maronites for now.
Posted by: Bart at March 9, 2005 8:58 PMhypothetical: air power and special ops are used to anhilate the syrian armed forces; we arm lebanese militias and assist them in eradicating the syrian secret police. this leaves syria prone and helpless. what follows ?
my guess: syria is asorbed into iraq, giving the sunnis more weight.
Posted by: cjm at March 9, 2005 10:34 PMcjm,
Given that both Baghdad and Damascus see themselves as competing centers of the Arab world, it is hard for me to imagine both cities being in the same country.
Posted by: Bart at March 11, 2005 10:33 AM