March 21, 2005
THERE'S JUST ONE SHOE LEFT TO DROP:
An unthinkable Tory victory? (Melanie Phillips, 21 March 2005, Daily Mail)
Are you thinking what I’m thinking? Is the unimaginable about to happen and the Conservative Party to snatch triumph from near-extinction by winning the general election?Even to ask the question is to acknowledge the seemingly overwhelming odds against such a suggestion. For the Tories to achieve the electoral swing needed to overturn Labour’s massive majority would entail, in the eyes of many, the biggest comeback since Lazarus.
But we live in disoriented and volatile times. Polls fluctuate; and the Tories have recently been dissolving Labour’s lead like a blow-torch on an ice sculpture.
Beyond the polls, there is now a distinct feeling that something intangible has shifted in the political ether. It is not just the palpable panic in the Government’s ranks over the inadequacy of Alan Milburn’s tactics as Labour’s election mastermind, or the desperately forced shows of unity between Tony Blair and Gordon Brown to conceal the profound fissure at the very heart of government.
More than that, there seems to have been a subtle but perceptible shift in the national mood. Even last week’s pork-barrel Budget left people looking askance. For they have begun to hear once again a sound that had almost disappeared from the national memory. It is the sound of the Conservatives’ voice.
Come out against Europe and they can win. Posted by Orrin Judd at March 21, 2005 2:24 PM
The Tories have nothing like a united party, so even if they win, so what? Howard will be given no credit inside the party, the Tory Wets will still have an inordinate percentage of the clout. The headlong dash into EU-induced irrelevance will if anything accelerate.
What message will it send Labour? That being friendly to America loses in Britain? While I'm gratified whenever anything that increases our distance from Perfidious Albion occurs, I'm less than convinced that it would be a wise course for the Brits to follow. Blair would be dumped, and an unreconstructed Leftie would take over, perhaps Robin Cook. Brown would have no shot as he has been if anything to Blair's right on domestic policy.
The UKIP has apparently disappeared as a force in electoral politics. A Conservative government will be run by pro-Euro, America-hating toffs, like Boris Johnson and Kenneth Clarke. The Labourites will move hard left because the election cannot help but be interpreted as a rejection of the Third Way. The minor parties will only continue to demonstrate that they are even less fit for a significant role in government than the Bloc Quebecois, as difficult as that may be to imagine.
IOW, what we will see will be a return to the Britain that existed before Thatcher. The Britain of genteel decay, of unending labor problems, of high taxes, incompetent nanny states, and weirdos in high places. A nation that will make France seem like the US by comparison.
Posted by: bart at March 21, 2005 2:39 PMYes, but they don't matter anymore anyway. Europe exists only for our entertainment. This is entertaining.
Posted by: oj at March 21, 2005 2:45 PMI have a dear friend in England, but you're right: it's amusing.
Posted by: ghostcat at March 21, 2005 3:48 PM"Believing that they themselves are decent, tolerant, law-abiding people, this beleaguered majority feels that the middle ground they inhabit has been hijacked and — worse — that no-one sticks up for common-sense or justice, because to do so is to invite ridicule or vilification. It is hard to over-estimate public fury at this systematic upending of the notion of right and wrong, and the corresponding relief that a politician has summoned the courage to break the taboo against challenging it. "
Sounds like the American "consensus" before Barry came along and dumped the toaster into the bathtub. Michael howard is no Regan, no Thatcher, no Goldwater, but he might just do.
Sadly, i have to agree with bart, he may pull down the temple, but what will rise in its place? Who can say...my own hope is that _some_ of the anti-Euro forces will find voice.
Posted by: at March 21, 2005 3:59 PM