March 21, 2005
SUCH MOMENTS ARE NEVER BRIEF:
The Bush Factor: What the president has done for his party. (Fred Barnes, 03/28/2005, Weekly Standard)
Five factors have come together to give Republicans their best chance for major legislative and foreign policy achievements in nearly 80 years. And Bush has been crucial to each one.The first factor is, obviously, the Republican ascendancy. [...]
Factor two: Democratic disarray. Nothing drives Democrats to distraction--and to demagoguery--the way Bush does. He brings out the worst in them. If Bush wants something, they're reflexively and often mindlessly against it. [...]
The CBS scandal leads to factor three, the crackup of the mainstream media. [...]
Factor four: the decline of liberalism. No one has described liberalism's sad state better than Martin Peretz, editor in chief of the New Republic. Liberalism is no longer a serious set of ideas. Nor is it a coherent ideology used to guide political action. In 2005, it has become merely a complaint, Peretz suggested, a complaint about Bush and much of America.
And, finally, factor five: an ambitious, impatient president with an agenda. In a word, Bush. Presidents have a choice. They can lead or they can govern. President George H.W. Bush governed. His son leads. He does what he doesn't have to do. Or at least tries to. So Bush aims to reform Social Security, curb trial lawyers, make the federal courts more conservative, and implant democracy all over the world.
These five factors have produced a rare political moment for Republicans. It's a moment that won't last more than a year or two. The question is whether they'll do anything with it. Nothing is guaranteed. But a lot is expected.
To the contrary, though it may have marginal ups and downs over the next few years, it's likely to last quite awhile, for demographic reasons alone. Posted by Orrin Judd at March 21, 2005 5:20 PM
i think the u.s. is at a tipping point demographically. when the democrats stop being a national party, and can't even manage regional politics, then we will know it for sure. he who breeds, leads.
Posted by: cjm at March 21, 2005 8:10 PMWhile John Kerry's "Defeat 2005" tour around the country has been a bit of an embarassment, his remark about winning the election if only half the people at an Ohio State football game switched their votes does say something about the general mindset of the Democratic Party. They think just a few tweaks here and there in the proper battleground states, and they can regain power in 2008 without having to seriously alter their positions one iota.
That means the party is going to remain in denial at least through the 2008 election, with the only question how much of a public shift will their candidate entertain -- a full political public relations makeover (Hillary and her recent statements and foreign policy votes) or just slapping a few smears of lipstick on the pig (the Howard Dean solution). The former has an outside chance of working; the latter will leave the party either going through a painful re-examination in 2009 or fuming about the exact same things they are today and wondering what they have to do to show those morons in the Red States that they're morons unless they vote for them in 2012.
Posted by: John at March 21, 2005 11:01 PMStill it would be wrong to say that the Democrats don't have any policy positions, which go something like this:
If only the Repbulicans stop getting lucky and start screwing up like they're supposed to.
If only the US can learn some humility (by getting thrashed in the Middle East and North Korea).
If only the countries in the Middle East show how pathetic they really can be.
If only the US economy goes all the way to Patagonia.
If only the voters are allowed to see beyond the lies and propaganda of the Bush administration (that darned right-wing MSM!) and are able to see which party really supports their interests and the interests of the US---and the world at large.
Great expectations!
Posted by: Barry Meislin at March 22, 2005 1:51 AMMarty Peretz is right about the Democrats, they have no coherent ideology. Their coalition cannot hold. How are they going to keep affluent gays and libertines together in the same party as religious members of racial and ethnic minorities? In 1984, Reagan got 3% of the Black vote, won 49 states and came within 11000 votes of winning 50. How can the Democrats hope to win if the GOP can get a solid 20% of the Black vote?
The Democrats lost in 2000 when foreign and defense matters were not on the agenda. And those are the GOP strong suit. Since foreign policy and defense matters are on the agenda for the foreseeable future, it would seem that the GOP has another built-in advantage. If the Iraq campaign is completed successfully, with a more-or-less democratic Iraq, one not engaged in violence against its neighbors or supporting terror, the Democrats will lose much of their following among the preternaturally cowardly.
Posted by: bart at March 22, 2005 8:08 AM