SEE THE DEMOCRATS ALONG THE NILE:

Democracy on the Nile? (SAAD EDDIN IBRAHIM, 3/03/05, THE JERUSALEM POST)

Many people have long argued that democratization in the Middle East will not get far until Egypt becomes fully engaged in the process. Egypt could not truly set out on a path of democratization without first amending its constitution – to downsize the pharaonic powers of its president and set limits on his term in office. Mubarak, after all, is already in his 24th year as president. So the announcement that he wants competitive presidential elections is an important first step. The regime may assume that it will be able to use the process to its own advantage, but events may not be that easy to control once people begin to feel empowered. The democratic genie is out of the bottle.

In any case, Egypt is not the only country in this troubled region now embarking on the road of democracy. Turkey at one end of the Middle East and Morocco at the other are already well on their way. The real groundswell this time seems to have come from the close timing and positive outcomes of recent elections in Iraq, Palestine, and to a lesser degree in Saudi Arabia.

The unprecedented demonstrations against Syria's occupation of Lebanon following the assassination of its former prime minister, Rafik Hariri, show no signs of abating. Egyptian opposition groups, too, have staged increasingly bold marches and other forms of civil disobedience in the past few weeks.

The catalyst for their anger was the arrest and detention of ailing opposition leader Ayman Nour at the end of January. The government's heavy-handed behavior reinvigorated the homegrown "Kifaya" (Enough) movement, which has demanded an end to the Mubarak regime.

Suddenly the popular wisdom that Egyptians are passive and afraid to act did not seem to be holding up. An alliance of local, regional, and international forces is uniting against tyranny-as-usual on the banks of the Nile.

The recent wave of popular pressure appears to have shaken the regime. Only a month ago, Mubarak dismissed demands for constitutional reform as "futile." But, whatever combination of events brought about his change of heart, the election initiative should be welcomed. It is a necessary – but insufficient – first step for overhauling Egypt's stagnant political system.

Time to tie the $2 billion in annual aid to some further reforms.

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 10, 2005 5:01 AM