PACHYDERMOPHOBIA:

Bush's 'constructive instability' nears critical juncture (Robert Satloff, March 18, 2005, Lebanon Daily Star)

Historically, the pursuit of stability has been a central feature of U.S. Middle East policy. In other regions of the world, U.S. strategists debated the wisdom of stability - should the United States reach a modus vivendi with the Soviets or seek to rollback the Soviet empire? - but George W. Bush was the first president to argue that stability was itself an obstacle to the advancement of U.S. interests in the Middle East.

Triggered by the events of September 11, 2001, the administration has since pursued what can be termed a policy of "constructive instability," based on the notion that the protection of U.S. citizens and the security of U.S. interests are best served by fundamental change in Middle East regimes toward welcoming - rather than stifling - the full participation of their citizenry in political and economic life.

In this effort, the United States has employed a range of coercive and non-coercive measures, from military force to implement regime change in Iraq and Afghanistan; to a mix of carrots-and-sticks first to isolate Yasser Arafat and then to encourage new, peaceful, accountable Palestinian leadership; to the gentle (and increasingly less so) use of the bully pulpit to nudge Egypt and Saudi Arabia down the reformist path.

Though the president has termed this a "generational" project, the pace of activity on this issue has been remarkably swift - certainly by regional standards, even by global ones. Part of the reason for this is the nature of inter-Arab politics.

In every Arab capital, leaders are scratching their heads to figure out what will satisfy the White House, where U.S. priorities really lay, or how to turn America's reformist instinct to their best advantage. Every country has a different formula and some are pursuing multiple tracks at the same time.

In Tunisia, an authoritarian ruler is playing the Israel card, inviting Ariel Sharon to a UN information conference, which will convene, ironically, in a country that routinely blocks access to Web sites of its political critics.

In Saudi Arabia, a religious despotism is trying the democracy card, holding male-only municipal and regional elections, a welcome measure that still does not bring Saudi representative institutions to where they were 70 years ago.

In Kuwait, the long-standing debate about women's suffrage is coming to a head, with a parliamentary vote soon.

In Egypt, where the stakes are highest, the long-serving president is playing both the Israel and the democracy cards, raising the temperature of the "cold peace" with Jerusalem, and promising constitutional reform of sorts.

Collectively, the fear of the American elephant in the Arab china shop is so great that Arab leaders have dropped all pretenses to "hanging together" and are willing to have others "hang separately" if it buys them time and sufferance in Washington.

Give 'em enough rope...

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 18, 2005 12:00 AM