MAKE THEM RUN THE COUNTRY:

Hezbollah's Balancing Act: Guns give it regional clout, but they hamper its role in Lebanon. It might have to choose. (Megan K. Stack, March 20, 2005, LA Times)

The possible withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon... has pushed Hezbollah to the brink of an identity crisis. The delicate balance between its foreign sponsors and its local popularity has been upended by Lebanon's political turmoil. Never before has the party faced such heavy pressure to give up its guns, with calls coming both from the international community and other groups within the country.

As talk of disarmament persists, the domestic and international demands on Hezbollah are becoming less harmonious. Guns are the key to Hezbollah's regional role, with its Iranian- and Syrian-backed armed force on Israel's border. Both sponsors would probably oppose any move to disarm the militia, which the U.S. government has branded a terrorist group.

But the weapons are becoming a millstone that weighs on Hezbollah's domestic profile. The militia was celebrated for helping to drive Israeli soldiers from the south after years of occupation. But that was five years ago. Lebanese enthusiasm for Hezbollah's arms has dropped, and Syria may not be around much longer to quell discussion of disarmament.

Amid the upheaval, perhaps no question bears greater importance to Lebanon than the future of Hezbollah.

"If you want to talk about the central player who can change the whole face of the country, that's Hezbollah," said Ibrahim Moussawi, director of foreign news at Al Manar, Hezbollah's satellite television channel. "Now Hezbollah is in the middle, and everybody is trying to get Hezbollah to their side."

The party's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has responded to the pressure, and to Lebanon's sudden power vacuum, by charging into the political scene. The usually cautious leader made a rare trip to downtown Beirut for Hezbollah's mass demonstration this month, where he stood before a Lebanese flag and declared, "Long live Lebanon."

But it is such a visible, hands-on role in Lebanese politics that the party has long shunned, fearful of smudging its reputation for incorruptibility. Hezbollah has risen to unmatched political power in Lebanon with the counterintuitive strategy of holding itself apart from the cutthroat intrigues of a widely distrusted government. The group has promoted itself as an untainted force and built schools, hospitals and orphanages and provided other services normally supplied by the government.

"I don't think Hezbollah ever wanted to play such a large role," said Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, author of "Hezbollah: Politics and Religion" and a professor at the Lebanese American University. "It's always distanced itself from domestic squabbles. It's always refrained from assuming any political position in the government. It would never want to be held responsible for any mistake the government might make."

But these are uncertain days in Lebanon, and the status quo has broken down. The government has fallen, and the Syrian domination that has persisted in this small Mediterranean country since the end of its 15-year civil war is fading, leaving political infighting and the threat of violence in its wake.

Few dispute Hezbollah's power here. With a single call to demonstrate, Nasrallah flooded the streets with an estimated half-million people this month. The party's 12 lawmakers form one of the largest blocs in parliament, and Hezbollah is poised to gain even greater sway in elections scheduled for the spring.

At the same time, Hezbollah has always hung back. The party never sought Cabinet positions and usually avoided getting enmeshed in votes of confidence. In short, it tried to carve out a role that was neither with the government nor the opposition.

But as a bitterly divided Lebanon works to form what could emerge as its first sovereign political system since the civil war, there is little room for the party to remain neutral. The anticipated weakening of Syria's hold on Lebanon strips away a controlling power that protected and nurtured Hezbollah. Public anger against the Syrians is also swelling in the streets. Because Hezbollah is a well-known Syrian ally, it faces the risk of being tainted by association.

Nobody knows what the party would do if trapped between a heightened domestic pressure to relinquish its guns and its foreign sponsors' insistence that it keep the weapons trained on Israel. Some diplomats and analysts speculate that Hezbollah might consider loosening its links abroad, entering negotiations to put aside its weapons and recasting itself as a purely political Lebanese entity.

But other analysts dismiss hopes of disarmament as wishful thinking.

As the struggle turns inwards, to creating a functioning independent state, the guns and regional aspirations become superfluous.

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 20, 2005 8:46 AM