EVEN EASIER THAN IRAQ:

Damascus spring becomes winter of discontent (Ed O'Loughlin, March 2, 2005, The Age)

Some analysts believe that President Assad's regime thinks it has very little room to reform if it wants to remain in power.

The regime's underlying strength and weakness both stem from the fact that it is closely controlled by members of the Alawite religious minority, an eccentric offshoot of Shiite Islam that is considered by many orthodox Shiite and Sunni not to be Muslim at all.

Alawites comprise an estimated 8 to 10 per cent of Syria's 17 million people.

When Hafez Assad took power in a 1970 coup, his minority status seemed to make him a mediating force between the much larger Shiite and Sunni rival communities (Christians, although about 10 per cent of Syria's population, traditionally play a more passive role).

But Assad and his immediate Alawite clan quickly entrenched themselves at the heart of the security apparatus and have stayed there ever since.

The first major challenge to their rule came in 1982, when the Sunni orthodox Muslim Brotherhood declared that Syria was being governed by infidels and launched a campaign of insurrection.

Hafez Assad responded with ruthless vigour, sealing off and destroying whole sections of the Sunni stronghold at Hama, in central Syria. Between 20,000 and 40,000 people are thought to have died.

That put paid to any thought of open rebellion in Syria, right up to the Damascus Spring. But with scores still to be settled, the Alawite bosses of the military, police and the bewildering tangle of secret services fear that giving up power could bring retribution.

Moreover, losing power would also mean losing their privileged access to the economy not only of Syria but of neighbouring Lebanon, where the continuing presence of 14,000 Syrian "peacekeeping" troops effectively gives Damascus control.

"Corruption affects all levels of government," charges Dr Maleh. "The intelligence services are a kind of mafia, and the top people in the intelligence services in Lebanon have become rich from the way they run Lebanon."

Folks fret about the military being overextended, but this one doesn't even involve heavy-lifting.

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 1, 2005 4:54 PM