NULLIFICATION DOCTRINE:

All eyes on Syria: The slaying of former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri, who strongly backed the United Nations resolution calling for the withdrawal of the approximately 17,000 Syrian troops stationed in Lebanon, has immediately aroused suspicions of complicity on the part of Damascus. Now watch Washington exploit the situation. (Syed Saleem Shahzad, 2/16/05, Asia Times)

"Sooner or later we will hear an accusation from Washington that Syria was behind the killing of Rafik, and then new controversies will be carved out which will question the Syrian presence in Lebanon. Of course, the situation will finally force Syria to pull out its troops, and of course a vacuum will be created, which will be filled by NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization] troops once again in the region," said veteran Palestinian writer Samir Allawi, who is an expert on Middle Eastern affairs.

"The plot seems to be multi-faceted to fix several issues," Allawi elaborated. "It is aimed at both Syria and Lebanon, which are a permanent pain in the sides of Israel," he said. "Syria is the only home left for the three top powerful militant groups - Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah - and Syria unofficially serves as a strategic back yard for the Palestinian resistance movement. Pressure on Syria will be used as a bargaining chip to minimize the presence of these organizations until their operations become null and void [as previously happened in Jordan].

"There are groups in Lebanon which are in favor of the presence of Syrian troops in the region, including among the rulers, but there is a powerful opposition as well. Rafik Hariri's killing will ignite controversies concerning the Syrian presence and thus create divisions in society, which will finally give the US a role in this region in the shape of a NATO presence and a chance to manipulate Lebanese internal and external policies," Allawi maintained.

Works for us.

MORE:
Former Leader Slain in Beirut: Rafik Hariri, a popular moderate, resigned as premier to protest Syrian influence. Many in Lebanon blame Damascus for his death. (Megan K. Stack, ,February 15, 2005, LA Times)

Hariri's assassination raised fears of a dangerous escalation in tension over the 16,000 Syrian soldiers and intelligence agents who maintain a chokehold on Lebanese politics. Syria defied a September U.N. Security Council resolution aimed at it that called on all foreign forces to relinquish their hold on Lebanon. The blast comes as this traumatized and politically fragile nation prepares warily for parliamentary elections this spring.

In a tape sent to Al Jazeera satellite TV, a man seated before a black flag said that Hariri, who had made his fortune in Saudi Arabia and held Saudi citizenship, was a "Saudi agent" who had been killed because of his ties to the Saudi royal family. The tape's authenticity could not be verified.

Monday night, Lebanese security forces stormed the home of a man they said had made the tape. Nobody was home, but agents seized documents, computer equipment and videotapes.

Yet many Lebanese, from opposition leaders to analysts and ordinary people, scorned the mysterious claim of responsibility and blamed Syria for Hariri's death. In a nation where most people haven't dared speak publicly of the Syrian occupation, mourners in the streets shouted, "Syria out!"

"I fear neither death nor jail! I will scream it at the top of my lungs: 'God damn the Syrians!' " yelled Fatme Hassan, a 50-year-old woman who was among hundreds of dazed and hysterical mourners who flocked to the hospital after the blast. "They killed our leader. They killed him because he was a national figure, a unifying figure. Where are we headed?"

Dynamic Billionaire Rebuilt His Nation From Ruins of War: Rafik Hariri, who served five terms as prime minister, helped send a message to the world that Lebanon had reopened for business. (John Daniszewski and Megan K. Stack, February 15, 2005, LA Times)

When Rafik Hariri returned home to Lebanon as prime minister after decades of serving as a building contractor to the Saudi royal family, and getting fabulously rich in the process, he found a country broken spiritually and materially by 15 years of war.

In 1992, the bearish man with bushy eyebrows set about to reconstruct Beirut, strengthen a fragile peace between sects, and resuscitate Lebanon into something approaching its former reputation as a Mediterranean sanctuary for business, vacations and high living.

After he left office last year, he remained, as people liked to call him, "Mr. Lebanon." Although he was often criticized for using public contracts to boost his vast fortune, few would argue that he had transformed his country.

A Time magazine profile in 1993 described Hariri this way: "Everything about Hariri is big — his houses, his fortune … his Rabelaisian appetites for food, real estate, banks, radio and TV stations, newspapers and power. And now he is playing a central role in his country's comeback … helped by a tenacity commensurate with his prodigious size."

His was a story of rinds to riches.

U.S. Seems Sure of the Hand of Syria, Hinting at Penalties (STEVEN R. WEISMAN, 2/15/05, NY Times)

"We're going to turn up the heat on Syria, that's for sure," said a senior State Department official. "It's been a pretty steady progression of pressure up to now, but I think it's going to spike in the wake of this event. Even though there's no evidence to link it to Syria, Syria has, by negligence or design, allowed Lebanon to become destabilized."

At the United Nations, the Security Council called for a meeting on Tuesday to discuss the bombing, but there was some doubt that the Council would vote to condemn Syria by name. In a resolution passed last year to condemn Syria's role in Lebanon, Syria was not specifically mentioned; there was only a reference to foreign forces in Lebanon.

Syria has effectively controlled Lebanon since it moved troops into the country in 1976, at the outset of the civil war. In 1981 Syria forced the Beirut government to sign a treaty declaring that Syria would play the dominant role in its foreign policy.

In the view of American analysts, Syria has in turn done the bidding of Iran, using Syrian territory to support Hezbollah, a major presence in Lebanon, and other Islamic groups that have attacked Israel.

The United States has focused mounting attention on Iran in recent weeks, both because of its suspected nuclear arms program and because of its support of groups trying to disrupt a peaceful resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

A Western diplomat said the United States, in condemning Syria's possible role in the Beirut attack, may also be trying to rebuke Iran, signaling that American tolerance of such behavior was diminishing. On the other hand, there are few sanctions available that the United States has not already imposed on Syria.

Western diplomats have sometimes suggested that Syria is "low-hanging fruit" in the campaign against terrorists: a nation that could be punished by further isolation and sanctions because its economy is in poor shape. Iran, by contrast, is awash in oil revenues, and the difficulties of mounting an international campaign against it are becoming increasingly obvious as Europeans call for engagement with Iran rather than confrontation.

Posted by Orrin Judd at February 15, 2005 8:29 AM