February 14, 2005

LOSING BADLY ENOUGH TO WIN:

Shiites Walk Softly in New Landscape (John Daniszewski, February 14, 2005, LA Times)

The need to defeat the insurgency that has claimed thousands of lives and almost paralyzed reconstruction, along with checks negotiated into the transitional law, will keep the Shiites from moves that would offend other groups, such as trying to impose Islamic law, politicians here say.

The Shiite alliance, tacitly backed by the nation's top Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, is likely to control a slim majority in the new 275-seat national assembly, whereas Sunni Muslim Arabs won perhaps seven spots. As a result, some people fear that Iraq's Shiite clerics will be tempted to emulate Shiite mullahs in neighboring Iran and push for an Islamic republic.

But if one listens to what the Shiite slate has been saying, there has been a reassuring consistency: Its members are not bent on dominating the political scene, even though Shiites are a majority in Iraq and were long repressed under Saddam Hussein. Rather, they want to cooperate with Iraq's minority groups, including Sunni Arabs, favored under Hussein, and ethnic Kurds, most of whom are also Sunni.

Abdelaziz Hakim, leader of the slate, has pledged a "government of national unity." Talks with minority groups have been going on in some detail, said Mowaffak Rubaie, the country's national security advisor and a leading voice in the new alliance of Shiites.

Instead of trying to cobble together enough allies to form a strong parliamentary majority to ram through legislation, he said, the slate is seeking to create a government that would include all, or as many as possible, of the 12 electoral slates that won seats in the assembly — plus some Sunni groups that did not participate.


In one way the Sunni may have helped themselves by not participating in higher numbers--the Shi'a wn by enough that they can easily afford to be magnanimous.

Posted by Orrin Judd at February 14, 2005 7:37 AM
Comments

How long will it be B4 Kennedy, Pelosi, Reid, etc. start saying that the Shiites are more open, gracious and bipartisin than the GOP?

Posted by: Dave W. at February 14, 2005 8:55 AM

The Shia alliance won a bare majority with 140 out of 275 seats. The vaunted Al-Sadr got 0.8% and the Iraqi Communists, who were touted as being the true face of Iraqis, received a rousing 0.6%. This makes them a greater force in Iraqi politics than Pat Buchanan in American politics, but less of one than Ralph Nader.

The Shia Alliance is far from unified, there will be no Shia Tom DeLay to hammer recalcitrant Alliance members into line. Thus, there will be pressure for them to make deals across party lines, which will be good in the short run as it will have the effect of forcing these disparate groups to work together in a peaceful fashion.

It will provide opportunities for sleazy operators to play all manner of self-dealing games, lining their own pockets, but is Chalabi worse than Pierre Laval, or Giulio Andreotti let alone Saddam?

Posted by: Bart at February 14, 2005 11:41 AM

I don't get the comparison. Chalabi is a hero.

Posted by: oj at February 14, 2005 11:46 AM

Chalabi is neither the hero that his admirers make him out to be, nor is he the villain his enemies make him out to be, and if he were he would still be light years better than Saddam. He is the sort of character that nascent democracies need and who arise in situations of near-chaos. I would refer you to Conrad's Nostromo. The developing world is full of them, many from ethnic and religious minorities like Greeks in Sudan or Somalia, Arabs in West Africa, Jews in Latin America or Chinese in Southeast Asia.

Chalabi's main interest is Chalabi. Guys like this can be destructive if they see that the chaos is so bad that only a psychotic can make a go of things, e.g. Pierre Laval and his loyalty to Petain and Hitler. But if there is a real possibility that more or less rational governance can occur and if it does it will inure to his benefit, then he can be a real force for good.

Henry Clay's mansion with the silver doorknobs didn't build itself and he was in public office at the time.

Slick dealmakers can keep governments going when all the parties are closer to 'going to the mattresses' rather than making a go of things. Andreotti certainly played that role in postwar Italy, keeping the disparate factions of the anti-Communist coalition from killing each other.

At the end of the Cold War his usefulness ended and his greed became even too much for the Italian political class to ignore. Also, his party, the Christian Democrats, which was a melange of factions, atomized when it lost its raison d'etre, anti-Communism.

Posted by: Bart at February 14, 2005 1:00 PM

Then why did he topple Saddam?

Posted by: oj at February 14, 2005 2:55 PM

The US toppled Saddam, Chalabi was along for the ride sensing an opportunity to profit from the enusing disorder. If he can help in creating a more or less stable, more or less democratic, an Iraq more or less respectful of individual liberty and not involved in international terror, then he will deserve a place in history. But the notion that he is anything other than an operator looking for his next big score is laughable. A nice Swiss bank account for Chalabi is a small price to pay for the results I've outlined.

But sometimes such people are necessary and sometimes they can accomplish great things. Let us refrain from looking at their motives however and focus solely on results.

Posted by: Bart at February 15, 2005 7:40 AM

Chalabi did all the spadework while we fretted about Y2K and our 401ks.

Posted by: oj at February 15, 2005 8:07 AM
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