Its been over for almost a year now. The arabs just needed to find somebody to raise the white flag.

I'm afraid I see it more as:

"Ok, we're tired of killing them for now (and getting killed by them). Now, what about our state? And by the way, you must free all those prisoners and get out of our face. And what about those dollars? How can we accomplish anything without enough money?"

Except that what happens when "for now" is over? And what happens when the details---details, all of which Israel cannot ultimately agree to, whether it's the total return to the '67 borders or the status of Jerusalem or the return of all Palestinian refugees---provide, so conveniently, the return to the causus belli (temporarily suspended, due to exhaustion and/or strategy) and even more conveniently, the excuse to reject statehood (i.e., what self-respecting people would agree to a state like this!!?)?

Why shouldn't the current breakthrough be perceived as Oslo redux?

Ah yes, because it's a breakthrough, an opportunity, it's the real deal; and even if it isn't, well, you can't look a gift horse in the face.

Wish I could be more optimistic about all this; and of course hope I'm totally, utterly, flat out wrong that what we're seeing is the pursuit of war by other means---after successfully and effectively reducing Israel's strategic depth (with Israel's acquiescence, and backed by an enthusiastic world).

Right now, I'm in the 'trust but verify' mode.

Except that "verify" will be perceived either as Israeli aggression or at the very least, Israeli humiliation ("Whatsa matter? You don't believe us?").

Unless, by "verify" you mean the sort of verification that has led to Hizbullah re-arming to the teeth following Israel's withdrawal from South Lebanon.

All of which means that Israel will be pressured not to pre-empt the inevitable weapons build-up on the other side of the border; which build-up, like that of Hizbullah's will be shrugged off or ignored by the world at large or, at most, generate solemn phrases of concern along with stern warnings to cease and desist for the sake of peace, etc., etc.

Needless to say, Israel has the Bomb, so it's only natural for its neighbors to want to defend themselves, etc., etc. (In other words, Israel is causing the arms race herself, and so has no business complaining, etc., etc.)

It's very difficult, nay, it's not really possible (e.g., sanctions on Saddam) to enforce verification on a culture whose ideology is fuelled by paranoia, and where power is identity. Keeping in mind, besides, the ultimate goal of the Palestinians with regard to the Zionist entity.

Let's say, for the sake of argument, that the new Arab state in the region encompasses Gaza, 90+% of the territories liberated in 1967 and sections of Jerusalem which are neither majority Jewish nor parts of the Old City where most of the holiest sites are located, that the Arab 'right of return' gets dropped and a few predominantly Muslim sections of Galilee get annexed to this new Arab state in exchange. The security fence basically acts as a dividing line and the two parties sign off on it.

What happens next? Abbas is compelled to actually run something other than his mouth. The garbage has to get picked up, the stores have to be protected from robbers, the postal service has to operate, etc. If he is forced to run a 'state' then he has no time for nonsense. Is it in his interest to have amicable relations with an Israel willing to invest in his 'country' and employ his surplus population, or is it in his interest to continue an increasingly futile struggle against a country that already is a world leader in high tech of all kinds and which will have an exponentially growing economy when its busses stop being blown up?

There is only one power in the region other than Israel and the Muslims, and that is the US. It is difficult, if not impossible, to imagine an American administration, being elected after 9/11, that does not understand what Israelis go through on a daily basis. Everybody in America other than the Far Left and the Buchananite Brown Shirts certainly does. They will see an Israel pulling out of the most difficult to defend 'settlements,' as the Americans have asked and as the bien-pensants have assured us were the only obstacle to peace. The Israelis will be doing what the Americans want, based upon the received conventional wisdom. The pressure then increases on Abbas to deliver peace on the part of his people.

There is no shortage of flies in the ointment of course. The Europeans are going to want a piece of the action, and Europeans are never happier than when they see Jews being murdered. However, if the US has a stated position and Israel is complying with that position, there isn't a whole lot the senescent Euros can do about it. Do the Europeans really wish to satisfy their 2000 year old lust for Jewish blood by pissing off the US even more than they already have?

The Islamic states like Iran and Saudi Arabia can still muck things up, but both of them have severe limits on their behavior. They are dictatorships in a region where dictatorship appears to finally be on the wane. They are oil producers exclusively, in a world where plenty of people produce oil, where there are increasing numbers of options to oil usage and where they need all the money they can get from their oil to buy peace at home. Saudi Arabia and Iran do not have a large fan club in America outside of a few university faculties and oil company boardrooms. So their impact is increasingly limited.

And in a hundred years Israel is a majority Palestinian state anyway.

In the long run we are all dead. In a century lots of stuff can happen. That's 4 generations. Look at the changes in the world in the last 4 generations and consider that the rate of change is accelerating.

Maybe us forward looking types will be living in space somewhere, who knows?