February 23, 2005
APPARENTLY THERE WAS YELLOWCAKE IN THE BOMB:
Who killed Rafik Hariri? (Patrick Seale, February 23, 2005, The Guardian)
If Syria killed Rafik Hariri, Lebanon's former prime minister and mastermind of its revival after the civil war, it must be judged an act of political suicide. Syria is already under great international pressure from the US, France and Israel. To kill Hariri at this critical moment would be to destroy Syria's reputation once and for all and hand its enemies a weapon with which to deliver the blow that could finally destabilise the Damascus regime, and even possibly bring it down.So attributing responsibility for the murder to Syria is implausible.
Didn't the Guardianistas learn anything from the whole WMD dog and pony show? It doesn't matter who did it--the assassination can be blamed on Syria and used as the lever for regime change, at least in Lebanon, and possibly in Syria.
MORE (via Tom Morin):
Pat can't figure it out either, Baiting a trap for Bush? (Pat Buchanan, February 21, 2005, Creators Syndicate, Inc.)
If Syria's Bashar Assad was behind the assassination of ex-Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri of Lebanon, he is, in the edited version of Gen. Tommy Franks' phrase, "the dumbest ... man on the planet."Posted by Orrin Judd at February 23, 2005 7:44 AMThe Beirut car-bombing that killed Hariri smashed Assad's hope of any rapprochement with the United States, forced him into a collision with President Bush, united the Lebanese in rage at Damascus and their own pro-Syrian government, and coalesced world pressure on Assad to get his 15,000 troops out of Lebanon.
The blowback from this atrocity, fully predictable, is Syria's isolation. Hence, it makes no sense for Bashar to have done it.
Seale would have been great to have had around 64 years ago to explain to Guardian readers why the Japanese couldn't possibly have attacked Pearl Harbor.
Posted by: John at February 23, 2005 8:17 AMOr Jordan joined the Arab League in attacking Israel in 1967, or Saddam Hussain invaded Kuwait, or Al Qaeda attacked the American Homeland...
Posted by: Moe from NC at February 23, 2005 9:44 AMHas Syria made even a pro forma denial yet?
The Assad clan is as rotten as it gets. if they are falsely accused this time, it will be the first time that has happened. If they are thrown out of Lebanon it will be 25 years too late. If they are thrown out of Syria it will be 60 years too late.
Posted by: Robert Schwartz at February 23, 2005 10:43 AMTouching display; the two Pats placing so much stock in Bashar's capacity for prudence.
Posted by: Luciferous at February 23, 2005 11:12 AMPatrick Seale wrote a fawning biography of Papa Assad a few decades ago. He has a thing for Arab fascists.
As for Buchanan, well, res ipsa loquitur, the thing speaks for itself.
I don't have trouble believing that Assad's people did it. I just have trouble with why. Were they hoping to cow the Lebanese? Did they get some kind of wink from the French or the Saudis or both? Did they think that America was too busy in Iraq to notice, particularly after an election which appears to have ended about 90% of whatever feeble resistance was left over?
My guess is that the Sunnis in the security services got together with Al-Qaeda to blow up Hariri. There would be a worldwide reaction, and Baby Assad would be chased back to London measuring people for eyeglasses at a Pearle Vision Center. A Sunni ascendancy due to their dominance of the security services in Syria would result, the Alawites would get stomped on much to the delight of about 80% of Syrians, and 'confrontation state' status with the 'Zionist entity' would be maintained, with the place becoming the clearinghouse du jour for international Islamist terrorists.
Posted by: Bart at February 23, 2005 11:23 AMBart:
More likely he was targeted by al Qaedists because of his ties to the Sa'uds. But who cares? The storyline belongs to us now.
Posted by: oj at February 23, 2005 11:38 AMBart, if your guess is right and it is as plausible as any I've heard, than this is the same as the string of errors that Moe from NC cites. Its nice to have stupid foes.
Posted by: Bob at February 23, 2005 11:43 AMHow long before this shows up on Democratic Underground as a discussion thread?
Posted by: Mike Morley at February 23, 2005 11:57 AMWhen in doubt, bet on stupidity.
Posted by: Mike Earl at February 23, 2005 11:59 AMThis infatuation with "assigning blame" as a reason for inaction is yet another problem with the criminal model for international relations. When something like this assassination, or the next attack on the US happens, you figure out who stands best to benefit, and whack 'em. And if you later find you whacked the wrong guy, you go whack the right one, too. Call it the Godfather model. As Saddam learned the hard way, plausible deniability wasn't enough.
Posted by: Raoul Ortega at February 23, 2005 12:18 PMi forget who's motto it is but "kill them all and let god sort it out" comes to mind
Posted by: cjm at February 23, 2005 1:00 PM