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RISE OF THE MINI MONARCHS: The Middle East: Where will the next generation of leaders emerge? Most likely from the periphery of the Arab world. (Saad Eddin Ibrahim, December 28, 2004, Newsweek International)

The most interesting reformers are all small states on the margins. Well before the fall of Saddam, a set of young monarchs had recognized the need for political modernization. Morocco, Jordan, Oman, Bahrain and Qatar are all evolving into constitutional monarchies. Elected parliaments that hold the top executive accountable are either already in place or under construction in those countries. Morocco's King Mohamed VI and Qatar's Sheik Hamad al-Thani are not only young, Western-educated and leading the region in political democratization, but also overseeing a revolutionary social transformation of their societies.

In December 2003 the Moroccan king proposed a bill providing for full gender equality in all aspects of life, putting Morocco ahead of Egypt and Tunisia on women's issues in the Arab world, and on a par with Turkey in the larger Muslim world. He has lifted censorship and set up a commission, modeled on Nelson Mandela's Truth and Reconciliation Commission in South Africa, to investigate human-rights violations committed under the previous ruler (his own father), try those responsible and repatriate or compensate victims and their relatives.

Most important, the king has quieted fears that reform will create an opening for extremist parties: the leading Islamic party has become a responsible member of Parliament. In fact, wherever ruling regimes allow an opening for participation of all political factions, the Islamist center is strengthened over its right wing. Jordan is a case in point. There Islamist deputies and ministers failed to deliver on election promises and were defeated in subsequent elections.

At the other end of the Arab world, Sheik Hamad of Qatar earned much notoriety by allowing his tiny Gulf state to host the Al-Jazeera satellite-television network in 1996. Many in the West see Al-Jazeera as a forum for extremism, but I would argue that it is the single most important factor in opening up and expanding public space in the Arab world. Its freewheeling debates, talk shows and daring news coverage have energized Arab intelligentsia and empowered ordinary Arab citizens, who can call in and express themselves freely. Many other radio and TV stations followed suit. Meanwhile, Sheika Moza, Qatar's outspoken First Lady, has demolished the traditional stereotype of a veiled, submissive Arab woman, pushing hard for gender equality and broader modernization. The royal couple's latest project is the Doha Debates, modeled on the Oxford Union and moderated by a BBC host, in which lead-ing experts debate public issues before a live college audience. The Doha Debates promise to be no less revolutionary than Al-Jazeera; both are doing so much to liberate Arab minds that they infuriate their tyrannical neighbors.

It may be argued that a country like Qatar, with its small population and bountiful oil wealth, can afford to undertake such daring and costly ventures. The counterargument, however, is that the same country, with the same demographic and economic base, under a previous aging leadership did nothing of the sort. Likewise, countries with populations several times larger and a fraction of Qatar's wealth have managed to be as daring in moving forward with a radical reform agenda; those include Morocco, Oman, Bahrain and, to some extent, Jordan.

It appears possible, perhaps even probable, that Seif el-Islam el-Qaddafi will follow a similar path if he replaces his father.

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 1, 2005 9:15 AM