January 10, 2005
RIGHT YOU ARE, MR. MANKIW:
Mankiw's Magic (Larry Kudlow, January 9, 2005, Townhall)
Friday’s job report shows that White House economist Greg Mankiw was very nearly right when he projected almost a year ago that jobs could rise by 2.6 million in 2004. Of course, he was widely ridiculed inside Washington after making this statement, and at one point even the White House turned its back on the Harvard professor’s estimate.But the Labor Department’s latest employment release shows the yearly gain for nonfarm payrolls coming in at 2.3 million. That’s close enough for government work. It’s also the best jobs performance in five years.
In ten or twenty years, when economists think they know how to measure the actual employment rates and job creation in the new economy, it'll turn out that 2.6 million underestimated 2004's performance. Posted by Orrin Judd at January 10, 2005 8:39 AM
"...a year ago the White House forecast total job growth of 3.8 million, but growth in the average employment level of 2.6 million. In Larry Kudlow's case, he is pretending that the forecast of 2.6 million actually applied to total job growth." The average employment level only grew by 1.3 million, and the total job growth by 2.2 million.
That's from the Washington monthly's blog. The numbers are still good, but the forecasts, as usual, were not.
Posted by: Brandon at January 10, 2005 8:58 AMBrandon:
To the contrary, the numbers, as always, are complete guesses. It takes decades before economists can make just an informed one.
Posted by: oj at January 10, 2005 9:14 AM