January 16, 2005
FORTUNATELY, THE NITWITS ARE PREDICTING GREAT THINGS FOR CHINA:
CIA gives grim warning on European prospects (NICHOLAS CHRISTIAN, 1/17/05, The Scotsman)
THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population. It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances.
In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: "The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role."
It adds that the EU’s economic growth rate is dragged down by Germany and its restrictive labour laws. Reforms there - and in France and Italy to lesser extents - remain key to whether the EU as a whole can break out of its "slow-growth pattern".
It's devastating to have the CIA, which never gets anything right, sign on to the view that Europe is toast. We are now predicting a European Re-Renaissance.... Posted by Orrin Judd at January 16, 2005 9:41 AM
Europe is in decline? Has an aging population? Restrictive Labour laws? Who'da thunk?
I sure wish we had a cutting-edge intelligence service too.
Posted by: Peter B at January 16, 2005 10:11 AMUnless one is a europhile what's the downside to all this?
Posted by: MB at January 16, 2005 11:14 AMWhatdid Friedman predict about the euro again?
Posted by: Sandy P at January 16, 2005 12:05 PMOn the other hand, OJ, this could be the first report from the Porter Goss-influenced CIA, so it shockingly might be accurate.
Posted by: John at January 16, 2005 1:41 PMIf the CIA says EUtopia is finished, I think its safe to say that EU will rule the world within 15 yrs.
Posted by: AML at January 16, 2005 3:48 PMPerhaps they have been dropping in here occasionally.
Posted by: jim hamlen at January 16, 2005 10:09 PMSandyP:
Hmmm...as I recall, he gave it a ten-year time limit about two years ago.
Considering that Uncle Miltie has traditionally proposed solutions before anybody knows there are problems, the fact that he did NOT offer a solution for this situation tells me the EU better call a priest and administer the last rites.
Posted by: Matt Murphy at January 16, 2005 11:42 PM