January 17, 2005

BUILT IN ESCAPE HATCH:

Iraqi Vote May Be Just the Beginning (Alissa J. Rubin and Doyle McManus, January 17, 2005, LA Times)

For months, President Bush and other U.S. officials have heralded Iraq's election of a transitional government as a major goal in the struggle to achieve democracy and stability there.

But with the vote now just two weeks away, U.S. and Iraqi officials have begun to focus on the daunting problems they will face the morning after election day — ones every bit as formidable as those they have faced since the invasion. Among them are a probable Shiite Muslim-led government that may ask for assurances that U.S. troops will leave the country, a Sunni minority that is likely to feel even more disenfranchised, a long process of drafting a constitution that tries to knit the country back together and an insurgency that may even gather strength.

"We don't see the election itself as a pivotal point," Richard L. Armitage, the deputy secretary of State, said last week. "It is a part of the process. In fact, one could say it's the beginning of a process."

Bush administration officials expect the new Iraqi government to ask for a specific schedule for the withdrawal of the 173,000 U.S. and other foreign troops in the country. Leaders of the Shiite Muslim coalition that is expected to win first place in the balloting have publicly promised voters they will press for such a timetable.


Our leaving when asked, besides suiting our own interests, even gives the new government credibility.

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 17, 2005 9:24 AM
Comments

I'm not so sure that it will suit our own interests or give the new government credibilitiy (in the eyes of the world) if the newly elected assembly starts widespread slaughter of Sunnis.

Posted by: Bret at January 17, 2005 1:16 PM

Why not?

Posted by: oj at January 17, 2005 1:30 PM

Now we're just moving the goal posts to say that the election, like the transfer of sovereignty, the capture of saddam, and like mission accomplished won't be the end of hostilities or the begininning of a proper government.
At the same time we are setting up our hasty retreat as the country ratchets up it's low level civil war into a full fledged one under the cover of "but they asked us respectfully to leave."
The shiites will take over, Sistani will declare an Islamic theocracy and we'll have left one hell of a training ground for real battle hardened terrorists with a grudge where one didn't exist three years prior.
Mission accomplished indeed.

Posted by: SPG at January 18, 2005 12:11 AM

SPG:

They aren't moving--that is the goal.

Posted by: oj at January 18, 2005 12:24 AM

Widespread slaughter of Sunnis by Shias would turn domestic public opinion against the Bush doctrine because that genocide would be perceived to be our fault.

Posted by: Bret at January 18, 2005 4:52 PM

Bret:

Yeah, folks would be terribly upset about dead Muslims.

Posted by: oj at January 18, 2005 5:30 PM

Well, OJ, I'll leave this thread bookmarked for awhile, since we seem to be in agreement that a near future withdrawal by our military has a significant chance of enabling a genocide of part of the Sunni population. If that happens, we'll see if the Bush doctrine survives public opinion.

Posted by: Bret at January 18, 2005 5:40 PM

Bret:

I don't think it will lead to any such. But no one will care of it does.

Posted by: oj at January 18, 2005 5:49 PM
« HEIRS: | Main | ORANGE SILOVIKI: »