November 3, 2004
SELF-REFUTING TIMES
President George W. Bush (NYTimes, 11/3/04)
We have had enough of the rancor for a while, and our greatest hope now is that Mr. Bush will set out to earn the right to be seen as leader by all the nation.Random Thoughts:
You would think that the Times would have a better understanding of the words "earn" and "right".
Congratulations to Senator Kerry on his decision not to be Al Gore.
The exit polls, for what they're worth, found that first time Hispanic voters split 50/50. The new Democratic majority is submerged.
If the Democrats have any brains at all, they will adopt the Cohen position on abortion: reverse Roe and leave it up to the states. Anyone want to take that bet?
Hillary Clinton is a big loser tonight. Nothing about this election suggests that a northeastern liberal has a prayer of winning the presidency.
There seem to be Senators who are willing to volunteer to be Minority Leader or, as we like to call him, Kamikaze-In-Chief.
In the gap between Kerry's call to the President and his speech, a few Democrats seemed to be realizing that the problem might be their failure to defend the country and their propensity for making fun of the majority of voters. Immediately after the speech, they started blaming the voting machines and Kerry's centrist positions.
Democratic Underground betrayed me by requiring registration for their discussion forums. Rats.
For the last two weeks, a good friend called me daily moaning about how Bush was going to lose. For the first thirteen days, I told him to buck up. Bush was going to win. Yesterday, I let him get me down.
The big undersold story is how close Kerry came to winning the electoral vote despite being down 3.5 million votes.
The polls were wrong from start to finish. We have no idea how this election went. For all we know, Bush was ahead by five points from the Convention on. Among the reasons the polls were wrong was one we noticed early on: the pollsters ignored 2002 and insisted that the electorate would look exactly like 2000.
"All Gore voters will vote for Kerry" because nothing changed at all in the last four years.
People who identified the Iraqi war as the number one issue voted overwhelmingly for Kerry. People who identified the war on terror as the number one issue voted overwhelmingly for Bush. People who said that the Iraqi war is the war on terror voted overwhelmingly for Bush. The Democrats spent '04 denying that such people existed.
OJ long ago identified the unmentionable truth of this election: Americans love war.
MORE: Should we send the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court a fruit basket?
Apparently, 23% of gays voted for Bush -- the same percentage as in 2000.
Posted by David Cohen at November 3, 2004 5:20 PM"Americans love war"
Shouldn't that be "Americans love winning wars." Or are you including certain people's fetish with reliving the Viet Nam debacle as a form of "love"? (The same could be said about the losers in the War Between the States, too.)
And I think I was one of the first around here last night to point out that we almost had someone win an absolute popular majority and lose the Electoral College. When the E.C. has tended to amplify narrow margins in the past , why is the map essentially unchanged from the previous election where Bush didn't even have a plurality?
Posted by: Raoul Ortega at November 3, 2004 5:33 PMW lost Gore states by smaller margins this time. See David's third from bottom.
Posted by: joe shropshire at November 3, 2004 5:39 PMDavid - I was impressed by how well the polls did. I thought Bush would win by 5% and thought the RCP poll average that showed him with a 2-3% lead must be underestimating him. They turned out to be closer than I was.
Posted by: pj at November 3, 2004 5:53 PMWhat was the line from the opening speech in "Patton"?
"American's traditionally love to fight. All real Americans love the sting of battle."
Posted by: Brandon at November 3, 2004 5:58 PMI think it's more like: Americans love winning a war so that -- as soon as possible -- they can go back to drinking beer and minding their own business.
Posted by: ray at November 3, 2004 6:13 PMthe overwhelming popular vote majority, yet the fairly close electoral vote victory has gotta make one shake their heads. Along with that it seems silly that we do not have a universal and standard electronic voting system that accounts for all votes and promotes a high percentage of the voting public polling, with little margin for cheating. Finally, true campaign finance reform and time of offical campaigning needs serious reform, no?
The fact is, who knows if we suppressed vote, who knows how many unregistered and illegally registered people voted, who knows how accurate the vote actually is, and who knows if people are voting for the issues properly or are misinformed due to an overly zealous campaign machine.
Posted by: neil at November 3, 2004 6:28 PMDavid:
Love war, or do not fear war? And is there a meaningful difference?
Posted by: Peter B at November 3, 2004 6:33 PMI just looked up the 2000 vote totals. Bush received 50 million then, 58 million yesterday. That 8 million difference apparently eluded the pollsters (along with the major media).
Posted by: Fred Jacobsen (San Fran) at November 3, 2004 6:42 PMAnd speaking of 'serious reform' as neil does above, what could possibly be in more need of it than the never-give-up-your-point-no-matter-how-often-you-are-clearly-made-out-to-be-an-idiot New York Times. Sheeeeeeeesh...."earn the right", indeed!
Posted by: DL Meadows at November 3, 2004 6:42 PM"Democratic Underground betrayed me by requiring registration for their discussion forums. Rats."
Get a throwaway yahoo or hotmail address and register with that. Then post away!
Posted by: Governor Breck at November 3, 2004 6:52 PMThat Patton speech wasn't made up for the movie. If anything, it was cleaned up.
"Men, this stuff that some sources sling around about America wanting out of this war, not wanting to fight, is a crock of bullshit. Americans love to fight, traditionally. All real Americans love the sting and clash of battle..."
Posted by: TimF at November 3, 2004 6:55 PMDon't forget the Incumbent Rule, which went down in flames.
Posted by: AC at November 3, 2004 8:11 PMPJ -- It depends on which poll we're talking about, I guess. It turns out that Gallup probably did a pretty good job until the end when they lost their nerve. But the whole idea of the campaign that we had from the polls could have been completely fictional.
Raoul, et al. -- I meant that we love war. If we didn't, we wouldn't do it so often or so well.
In a endorsement of the President I never posted, I wrote that one unintended consequence of electing John Kerry would be to teach politicians that, while Americans won't accept the deaths of relatively few American soldiers, there is no political price to be paid for the death of foreigners in their thousands.
Posted by: David Cohen at November 3, 2004 8:16 PMWhat ray said. Reluctance followed by resolution. Even Lindbergh followed that path.
Southerners, however, really are somewhat more warlike than the rest of the country.
Early political poll results are the answers of people who have sat still for up to 90 minutes of questions about toilet paper and room fresheners.
So they do not reflect the views of voters, registered voters or registered likely voters. They reflect the views of lonely shut-ins with nothing to do.
As the election gets closer, the pollsters start taking politics-only polls and expanding the sample size.
This should, in principle, increase the accuracy as the campaign goes along.
However, it does not work out that way. Was Hawaii dead-even, as 2 local polls claimed; or was it 54-45 Kerry (60-38 in my county)?
Orrin jeered at my methodology of counting bumper stickers, but I did better than Gannett.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at November 3, 2004 8:44 PMWe won, they lost. It's just that simple.
Posted by: Bart at November 3, 2004 10:14 PMHarry:
Given ancient Hawaiians' warlike nature, why aren't they warlike today? Or are they?
Posted by: Fred Jacobsen (San Fran) at November 3, 2004 10:26 PMBeen wasting my time reading piles of "analysis" articles from the "experts" today. Without exception they think Bush "must" move to the center now. Misunderestimated once again...
Posted by: brian at November 3, 2004 10:34 PMThey are warlike, Fred. One of the highest rates of military enlistment of any group in the nation.
Notwithstanding that, in personal relations, most display a somewhat exaggerated gentleness.
You almost never encounter a Hawaiian carpet-knight.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at November 4, 2004 4:18 PM"... I meant that we love war. If we didn't, we wouldn't do it so often or so well."
David,
I think that we hate war but understand that sometimes, fighting a war is better than the alternative. Because of these two reasons, when we choose (or are forced) to fight a war, we go whole hog for the win so that we can end the war and go back to our real lives.
The one time we failed to do that (VietNam), we more or less lost the will and hence lost the war. But in many ways, VietNam was not really a war. We had this proportional response thing going (i.e. kill one of ours and we'll kill one of yours). That's not war - that's a game that got a lot of our soldiers killed for no apparent reason and caused the general populace to reject the war as a valid war. If we're going to fight a war - fight it to win, not lose or tie. We should have bombed/marched over the North, removed their capability to wage a war against the South and ended the stupid thing.
Um, have you guys ever noticed that, while we've fought a lot of wars, none has actually been necessary for national survival?
Posted by: David Cohen at November 4, 2004 8:55 PMWorld War II, the Civil War, the War of 1812, the Revolutionary War weren't about survival.
Maybe you should read some history and then give us a call.
Posted by: Bart at November 4, 2004 10:15 PMBart: I agree with your first statement. Did you mean to end with a question mark?
Posted by: David Cohen at November 4, 2004 10:33 PM