This whole episode has been very surprising to say the least.

I've probably been about as big a defender of Putin as there is on this forum, but he really screwed the Corgi here. His gameplan makes no sense.

Anybody who has followed Ukrainian election results, and if you have a Ukrainian girlfriend you have no choice, knows the enormous regional split in the country. The West, especially the Roman Catholic and Ukrainian Catholic(Orthodox Rite Roman Catholics) areas votes for Western-looking candidates, the Russophone and ethnic Russian communities vote for pro-Moscow candidates. The swing vote are Orthodox Christian Ukrainian speakers, like the lovely Karyn. (For those who are interested, Jewish voters(about 2% of the total) vote like their non-Jewish neighbors except they don't support the racist nationalists(a minimal vote) for obvious reasons.)

In any national election the results are going to be close, and there are regions which are overwhelmingly one way or the other.

By intervening in the election, what has Putin received and what has it cost him? At best, Putin can hope that the Crimea and the Donbass and perhaps Odessa will secede and join with Russia. There is no way that the Ukraine as a whole will reunite with Russia, as the pan-Slavists dream. The heavy-handed intervention has ended that as a realistic possibility without the interposition of Russian military forces. Middle Ukraine is ticked off.

What has he lost? He's put the fear of G-d into all the former SSRs except Armenia and Belarus which are slavishly pro-Moscow. He's reminded the former Warsaw Pact members of why they wanted to break from Russia in the first place. He's made the entire political establishment of Europe and the US look at Russia as a potential threat, not as a partner. Aid programs and loan programs and trade deals will all be given a second look. Ukrainians are clearly Europeans and when their rights get squashed they have an immediate sympathetic ear among pretty much everyone in Europe. Putin can't even count on the loyal Stalinists anymore, since he has put Russian Orthodoxy on a pedestal. The notion of Sorbonne intellectuals and London chatterers backing a new Tsar is laughable.

At home, this is a disaster for Putin. His great strength has been his aura of competence, his winning streak. As he has been treated with respect overseas, his standing has risen at home. In the Ukraine, he has committed a lot of resources and prestige and he has gotten his head handed to him. He has tried to bluff the Ukrainians and it hasn't worked. He has alienated the West, even people who wouldn't begrudge his use of heavy-handed methods if they produced positive results. Now, even at home, where he still has opposition, there is blood in the water and the sharks are circling. He could be running a power station in Kazhakstan before the November elections.

Bart:

the problem is pretty elementary--Putin's strong authority can help restore a rump Russia and make it feasible, albeit briefly. Russia has no capacity for empire any longer, and never had much of one to begin with.

OJ,

That's true enough. But it would appear that Putin doesn't understand this, and has taken a risk which could eliminate his rule. What happens after him, I have no idea.

Elimated by whom? He just needs to cut Chechnya loose and accept a rather limited sphere of influence.

The problem would appear to be that he is dependent upon the Colonel Blimps of Russia for his continued rule. If he 'cuts Chechnya loose' he signs his own death warrant. What else would explain his gambit in the Ukraine? He's not an idiot so what was he thinking of?

There are lots of people who would off him. What are the power centers of modern Russia? The army, the apparat, the security services, organized crime and the oligarchs. A failure in Ukraine and any or all have an opening.