November 2, 2004
LEAVE GRANDPA ON THE ICEFLOE:
The test for the West: George W Bush, a fundamentalist Christian, clearly falls into the "exceptionalist" tradition that sees the US as the morally redemptive force in the world. On the other side of the divide is John Kerry, who rejects this notion of superiority. The outcome of the election will determine whether the United States' strained relations with Europe improve, or deteriorate even further than they have over the past four years under the Bush administration (Jim Lobe, 11/03/04, Asia Times)
It is the future unity of the "West" that, more than any other basic factor in contemporary global affairs, is most at stake in the presidential elections.As Democratic challenger Senator John Kerry has stressed virtually from the outset of his campaign, transatlantic relations - which are at the core of the post-World War II, Western-dominated international system - have never been more strained than under US President George W Bush.
No wonder: the coalition of aggressive nationalists, neo-conservatives and Christian Rightists that has driven Bush's foreign policy, particularly since the September 11 attacks on the US, is unquestionably the most contemptuous of Europe since just before Washington's entry into World War II, when US leaders still heeded the founders' admonition to avoid "entangling alliances" with European powers. [...]
"This US election will shape the future of Europe and the transatlantic West," wrote Oxford University professor Timothy Garten Ash in a column in the Washington Post a week ago. "If President Bush is re-elected, many Europeans will try to make the European Union a rival superpower to the United States."
Such a result would, of course, have the most profound implications, not just for the two parties involved, but for the entire world. For that very reason alone, it seems unlikely, particularly considering the durability of the Western alliance since World War II and the fact that the economic, corporate and strategic interests of both the US and Europe - overseen by the elaborate multilateral structure that includes everything from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to NATO and the United Nations Security Council - are so similar.
But those interests might not be sufficient to keep the two sides from breaking apart.
You have to be pretty dramatically out of touch with reality to imagine that America and a declining secular Europe have common interests and that the Europeans could compete with us even if they wanted to, which there is absolutely no evidence that their electorates would tolerate. Funny that the Realists look out at the world and fail to comprehend that places like India matter far more to our future than places like Belgium.
MORE:
Meanwhile, in nations that matter, Israel about to close $230m. drone deal with India (Yossi Melman, 11/02/04, Haaretz)
Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI) is about to close a $230 million deal with the Indian army to sell it about 50 Heron/Eagle drones.Posted by Orrin Judd at November 2, 2004 9:15 AMSecurity sources in India confirmed that the parties have worked out the details of the deal.
According to the agreement, IAI will sell India the drones, officially called unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as a ground station, communication equipment and intelligence-gathering devices that use optics and radar. The drones carry an electro-optical payload system and maritime patrol radar, according to IAI.
India is more than Kashmir; Europe is more than Belgium.
Posted by: Jeff Guinn at November 2, 2004 9:21 AMIndia is less than Kashmir. Europe is over.
Posted by: oj at November 2, 2004 9:26 AMWestern Europe is done. Stick a fork in it. The Eastern Europeans and the Italians still understand reality though.
Can anybody seriously believe that German taxpayers will allow their taxes to go up far enough to subsidize the 400-500% annual increase in European Defense spending that would be needed to be a competitior of the US? What would be the point? French egomania? That'll thrill them in Frankfurt.
The increasing closeness of India to Israel and the US is incredible considering the past behavior of the Congress Party. It must reflect an Indian national consensus in the face of the Muslim imperialist threat.
Posted by: Bart at November 2, 2004 10:09 AMBart:
Italy? It's birthrate is negligible--they're first to die.
Posted by: oj at November 2, 2004 10:19 AMI've told a number of Europeans to be careful what they wish for. If Kerry is elected and they don't deliver on what he has promised, the other 50% of Americans who aren't already contemptuous of Europe will be.
Posted by: Rick T. at November 2, 2004 10:34 AMOJ,
Italy limits Muslim immigration, yet allows Eastern Europeans in pretty easily.
If they reduce their population, it is the result of economic necessity. They used to hemorrhage population as the large Italian diaspora clearly shows.
Italy has stood by us in the WOT. They have been our friend. While their military contribution has not been much, given the history of the modern Italian military, they are probably doing us a favor. We use their ports, their airbases, their hospitals with nary a peep. Unlike other Euros, Italians have a generally very positive feeling about Americans.
All that is a lot more important than a temporary birth dearth of .09%.
Posted by: Bart at November 2, 2004 10:48 AMBart:
No young people so they'll need immigrants and they're going to be Muslims.
Posted by: oj at November 2, 2004 10:56 AMA birth rate of 99.91% of replacement makes that necessity pretty remote. If it stays that way for a century, they still have over 91 percent of their current population. And there is no shortage of Eastern Europeans coming in, particularly from Croatia and Romania.
Posted by: Bart at November 2, 2004 11:10 AMOJ:
My comment was to suggest there is no reason to undermine a strong argument by using a comparison suffering from a category mistake.
Posted by: Jeff Guinn at November 2, 2004 11:15 AMJeff:
What's that mean in non-darwin? Aren't India and Belgium both nations?
Posted by: oj at November 2, 2004 11:29 AMSo Bush is an exceptionalist and, I suppose, Kerry is an elitist, and Nader is a Socialist. I would say we have an exceptional choice.
Posted by: Pilgrim at November 2, 2004 11:29 AMBart:
Their rate is half replacement and falling. Italy's future is Islamic, not Italian.
Posted by: oj at November 2, 2004 11:31 AMI don't know where you get your numbers from, OJ, because they don't make any sense mathematically.
Italy has a birth rate of 9.2/1000, and a death rate of 10.1/1000, meaning that the rate of natural decrease is .09%. (UN Statistics Division, Statistical Yearbook)
By the time Italy's population loss becomes significant, the Muslims will either be dead or not Muslim.
Posted by: Bart at November 2, 2004 12:03 PM"No young people so they'll need immigrants and they're going to be Muslims."
Does one still see African prostitutes working rural crossroads in central and northern Italy? It was a striking sight back around the millenium.
Posted by: curt at November 2, 2004 12:19 PMBirth rate needed to keep population level steady:
2.1 children per woman
Current Italian birth rate:
1.2 children per woman
(both figures from memory, too lazy to google)
Posted by: Eugene S. at November 2, 2004 12:35 PMBart:
That betrays such misunderstanding of how demographics works that it's not worth explaining here.
Posted by: oj at November 2, 2004 1:26 PMMuslims -- especially ethnic Arabs -- retain their identity after immigration and do NOT assimilate much. The different religion and ethnic type mark them as different, tribal clanishness from the Old Country culture keeps them together, and both reinforce their identity. (Assisted by the carrot-and-stick of nativist distrust/rejection and multi-culti swooning over their difference.)
Current nativist birth rate --1.2 for 2.
Current Muslim birth rate -- a lot higher.
See how Allah prepares the Infidel for being overwhelmed by the Faithful?
Posted by: Ken at November 3, 2004 3:06 PM