November 30, 2004
IF NOT TODAY, TOMORROW:
The West's Moment: Protesters in Ukraine sang a new anthem: Vstavay! Rise up! But Moscow didn't like it, and some warn of a new Cold War. Shades of 1989? (Michael Meyer, 12/06/04, Newsweek International)
It's hard to escape the echo of 1989, the year the Berlin wall fell and oppressed peoples rose up to unseat communist dictators across Eastern Europe. And so it seemed last week in Ukraine, where hundreds of thousands of demonstrators protested the results of a presidential election widely considered to have been rigged. In scenes reminiscent of yester-year's mass uprisings in Leipzig and Berlin, or the joyous Velvet Revolution in Prague, "people power" was once again on the march. Students, pensioners and middle-aged workers braved snow and freezing temperatures in extraordinary solidarity. They shouted Svoboda, or "freedom," and "We are the people!" They waved the blue-and-yellow flag of their country amid a sea of orange banners and ribbons—the color of the opposition, a symbol of fire within and without. Rock stars sang a pop hit that, overnight, became a national anthem: Vstavay! Rise up!The lines could not be more clearly drawn, nor could the stakes be much higher—for Ukraine or the West.
1989? What happened in 1989?--some changed quickly, some changed more slowly. They're all going to end up in the same place. The only question implicated here is whether additional reform in Ukraine begins immediately or waits a few years. Those don't seem particulary high stakes in historic terms.
MORE:
Ukraine president calls for fresh elections (Helen Womack, December 1, 2004, The Age)
Ukraine looked close to winning the right to fresh presidential elections after its outgoing head of state, Leonid Kuchma, conceded a new vote might be the best way to avoid civil conflict in the divided nation.Posted by Orrin Judd at November 30, 2004 3:26 PMThe Supreme Court, whose 21 judges are considering opposition complaints of fraud in the November 21 election, has still to give a verdict.
The European Union has said a rerun would be the ideal outcome, and even Russia, which originally backed Mr Kuchma's chosen successor, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, appears to have withdrawn its objections to another election.
Well, they'll all end up in the same place in the very long run, but it makes a difference to those that live in those nations whether they become working democracies, or effectively dictatorships for decades.
Communism and fascism may have lost their allure, but totalitarianism remains a viable option for many nations.
Posted by: Michael Herdegen at November 30, 2004 3:47 PMAn option, not a viable one.
Posted by: oj at November 30, 2004 8:11 PMI though that W had looked into Putin's eyes and saw someone he could trust and work with, or some such thing? Hail CCCP!
Posted by: Dave W. at November 30, 2004 10:32 PMJust cause you can work with the guy doesn't mean you can expect him to piss away his own national security for you, just like the Turks, though allies, weren't going to help us found Kurdistan.
Posted by: oj at November 30, 2004 11:28 PMPutin might be unsustainable in office if the Ukraine officially rejects Yanukovich. Many Russians have yet to come to grips with their loss of empire, they still believe that the CIS states are little more than colonies. That is the case in Armenia or Belarus and possibly Kazahkstan but not elsewhere.
The map is in flux. I would guess that splitting off the Russian and Russophone areas of the Ukraine and having them join Russia might be simpler. The same is true with the majority Russian Transdniester region in Moldova.
Posted by: Bart at December 1, 2004 3:56 AMI'm guessing that the USSR pushed very hard for certain Russians to move to Ukraine in order to 'russify' the then region. Now Putin is attempting to save those displaced Russians who like the Bathists in Iraq have done very well, thank you very much, and have no interest in moving back to Russia as second class citizens but have annoyed native Ukrainens more than some what.
The very last thing these Russian-Ukrainans want is native democrat native Ukranians running the place.
Posted by: Uncle Bill at December 1, 2004 10:26 AMI'm guessing that the USSR pushed very hard for certain Russians to move to Ukraine in order to 'russify' the then region. Now Putin is attempting to save those displaced Russians who like the Bathists in Iraq have done very well, thank you very much, and have no interest in moving back to Russia as second class citizens but have annoyed native Ukrainens more than some what.
The very last thing these Russian-Ukrainans want is native democrat native Ukranians running the place.
Posted by: Uncle Bill at December 1, 2004 10:28 AM