November 4, 2004


HISPANIC VOTE KEY (DICK MORRIS, November 4, 2004, NY post)

GEORGE W. Bush was re-elected on Tuesday because the Hispanic vote, long a Democratic Party preserve, shifted toward the president's side.

The USA Today exit poll shows Hispanics, who had voted for Al Gore by 65 percent to 35 percent, supported Kerry by only 55 to 43. Since Hispanics accounted for 12 percent of the vote, their 10-point shift meant a net gain for Bush of 2.4 percent — which is most of the improvement in his popular-vote share.

The other two pillars of the Democratic Party citadel remained intact. John Kerry carried blacks by 89-11, only two points less than Gores 2000 showing of 91-9. The Democrat won the votes of single women by 63-36, even as Bush was winning 54 percent of married women to Kerry's 45 percent.

In America today, the Democratic Party is a demographic institution, anchored by its appeal to blacks, Hispanics and single women. Together, these three groups, a combined one-third of the electorate, voted 4 to 1 for Kerry and accounted for more than half of the Democrat's votes. The Republican Party is an intellectual and economic peer group that carries everyone who is not black or Hispanic or a single woman by 2 to 1.

So any crack in the demographic Democratic phalanx is historic and could herald a major party realignment, the first since blacks started to vote Democrat and Southern whites voted Republican in the late '60s/early '70s.

It is the fundamental incompatibility of the various groups that Democrats used to cobble together the modern party that always made the notion of an emerging majority silly.

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 4, 2004 3:34 PM

The NY Times is reporting that 25% of the Jewish vote went for Bush, a significant increase from the 15% in 2000, and much more than the 10% received by his father in 1992.

Posted by: Bart at November 4, 2004 3:38 PM

So much of the moonbat left -- that is to say, so much of the Democratic Party's current power elite -- is so virulently anti-Israel and anti-semitic that they're barely distinguishable from the latest David Duke rant ever published in the Arab News. When Democratic Jews finally notice that their own party wants them all dead--even the nonobservant, secular liberal ones--that trend should accelerate.

Posted by: Mike Morley at November 4, 2004 4:32 PM

I think a 2/3 increase isn't too shabby.

As the Jewish community becomes more observant, they will find that they have more in common with their religious Christian neighbors than they had previously believed. On a whole raft of issues from abortion to school vouchers to Israeli safety, their views are essentially identical.

An increasing number of non-observant Jews are finding that they have more in common with Christians than they had previously believed. We are effectively seeing an end to American anti-semitism except among a few fevered swamps like the Buchananites and the Hard Left.

The Democrats stoke our historical fear of religious Christianity constantly. In the face of reality, that is rapidly becoming a corgi which does not herd. Religious Christians are obviously our friends by their daily behavior, not only because of our role in their eschatology.

If the rumors of Arafat's demise are true, then Bush may actually be the man to bring Middle East peace on reasonable terms. This should cause a large switch in Jewish votes.

Posted by: Bart at November 4, 2004 4:48 PM

Hasn't everyone figured it out by now? Devisive, race-centered politics doesn't work, because people want to become Americans not join other "minorities" in overthrowing America.

"White Studies" sociology lays out how this happens. Ethnic groups "become White," one after another. This reality is shaping America because White Americans are smart enough to accept and welcome it.

Watch the Soccer matches on Mexican TV sometimes--they show ads for English lessons.

Posted by: Lou Gots at November 5, 2004 8:01 AM

There isn't a subway car in NYC that doesn't have a Spanish language ad for places where one can Aprenda Ingles.

Posted by: Bart at November 5, 2004 11:57 PM