HISTORY'S END KNOCKS:

China faces up to growing unrest: More than 58,000 major incidents of social unrest took place in China last year, up 15% from 2002. The surge could be explained by the freer flow of information on the Internet and by media and activists contacting foreign reporters. Analysts say there's no critical mass or organization of discontent - yet. (Paul Mooney, 11/15/04, Asia Times)

Making matters worse for the government, China's "new media" appear to be reaching a critical mass. While news of unrest is usually blacked out of the Chinese media, word is now spreading quickly via the widespread use of modern communications, including mobile phones, faxes, instant messages and the Internet, reaching Chinese nationwide. Activists in China have also become more adept at communicating with the foreign media. Within the past year, for example, dissatisfied Chinese citizens have begun to contact foreign journalists directly using mobile phones, short messages, faxes and e-mail.
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And, Gladney told Asia Times Online, bottling up these channels of communication won't be as easy. "This is clearly of concern to the leadership, but I'm not sure the government can prevent it," he said. "We're dealing with the cell-phone generation where people are in communication more than before. You can't turn back the clock on that."

Enver Can, vice president of the World Uyghur Congress based in Germany, agreed. "The communist government ultimately will not be able to change the tide of globalization and keep its people immune from the free flow of information," said Can. "The Chinese Communist Party will misjudge the situation if it still believes that its key weapon is the control of information."

Can, an ethnic Uighur from Xinjiang, told Asia Times online the situation is spinning out of control. "I have expected such disturbances for years," he said, adding that the government has up until now maintained stability through a "hardline" policy. Can said the rising gap between the new rich and poor, regional economic disparities, the crackdown against minorities and religious groups and the migrant-worker problem all spell continued trouble for the Communist Party.

"I would say that the government will face more and more unrest in the coming years," he predicted. "The string of recent protests might very well be the beginning of nationwide civil unrest."