November 24, 2004

CAN'T MAKE 'EM VOTE:

The recipe for civil war (Pepe Escobar, 11/24/04, Asia Times)

Fallujah plus elections amounts to civil war. This tragic equation may come to life in Iraq in early 2005. The official American rationale for the Fallujah offensive was to "stabilize" the country before the elections. This strategy may have paved the way to civil war. Ample evidence suggests that the majority of Sunnis - up to 30% of the population - will boycott the elections and denounce them as illegitimate, while Shi'ites, for the first time in Iraq, will be in power.

In other words, Shi'ites will have won the war.

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 24, 2004 9:01 AM
Comments

The mighty pudits have not been mentioning as much a simple equation. The invasion may prove a catastrophe for Sunni Arabs. Militant nut-case Sunni Arabs, in it's behalf, carried out 9/11.

Hello.

Posted by: Andrew X at November 24, 2004 9:48 AM

The typical liberal calculus is at work here: Since the sunnis are less than 1/3 of the population, they are a minority, and should win any "civil war" by default of minority deservingness.

Pah...

Posted by: M. Murcek at November 24, 2004 9:53 AM

If Pepe Escobar declared that you can get burned by fire it would be worth the risk of injury to verify his claim.

Posted by: MB at November 24, 2004 10:44 AM

I sure hope US generals are telling the Sunni leaders that we're actually more than happy to leave after the elections are over (whether or not they take part) and after the Iraqi army is sufficiently up to speed. Made up exclusively of Kurds and Shiites, if the Sunnis keep this up. Both of whom feel towards the Sunnis the way Russians felt towards Germans in 1943 or so.

Posted by: brian at November 24, 2004 2:12 PM

Brian,

If that happens we will probably betray our Kurdish and SHia friends and help the Sunnis who would kill us in our beds. After all, we do and did aid and abet Bosnian and Albanian Muslims when they murder Serb Christians.

Posted by: Bart at November 24, 2004 3:14 PM

Didn't the Shia boycott Iraqi elections at one point and become politically irrelevant?

Maybe lightning does strike twice.

Posted by: Randall Voth at November 25, 2004 8:25 AM
« BACK TO SPACE: | Main | BREAKING OUT OF THEIR MALAYSE: »