November 3, 2004

BARONE BEATS SAILER:

Anyone seen whether Steve Sailer won his Latino bet with Michael Barone? He certainly lost the point when W carried the Hispanic vote in FL.


UPDATE:

Oops, looks like self-identified Hispanics are 9% and the President got 42%, making Mr. Barone look conservative.

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 3, 2004 10:09 AM
Comments

You seem to be correct regarding the Hispanic vote going to 9% instead of the approximate 6% predicted by Sailor.

Slight problem though, Bush got 40% and isn't that less than 50%, so therefore Republicans are still losers. (then again I'm not great at math)

Posted by: h-man at November 3, 2004 10:21 AM

h:

Got up over 40%. If we can shut up the nativists we can get to a majority among Hispanics.

Posted by: oj at November 3, 2004 10:32 AM

"shut up the nativists"

Gee, I thought you were a "big tent" type guy.

Posted by: h-man at November 3, 2004 11:04 AM

Yes, Hispanics big, nativists small.

Posted by: oj at November 3, 2004 11:19 AM

In order to help you out, I should point out that in order to INCREASE the percentage of Hispanics voting for Republicans, the the Republicans should support start to minimize illegal immigration as evidenced by the vote on the Arizona proposition that won 56-44 yesterday.

As you can see from the same CNN exit poll data that you linked to Latinos support the measure with 47% in favor

Posted by: h-man at November 3, 2004 11:28 AM

Frankly, I've always thought the "Hispanic vote" was something of a myth. It's just not a unified, separate voting bloc like the black vote, which always turns out huge majorities for the Dems.

Hispanics in Dem states like California and New York tend to go - surprise! - Democratic. Hispanics in Repub states like Texas and Florida migrate more towards - surprise again! - the Republicans.

This suggests, if anything, that Hispanic voters assume the political leanings of their non-Hispanic neighbors fairly readily. The contrast to the always-and-everywhere Democratic black vote is the real story.

Though I'm sure Steve Sailer will convert the numbers into one of his Republicans-are-and-always-should-be-the-white-people's-party essays.

Posted by: Casey Abell at November 3, 2004 11:42 AM

h:

Yes, make them legals, not illegals.

Posted by: oj at November 3, 2004 11:42 AM

Only if they come here legally.

What really needs to be done is make Mexico more attractive.

Posted by: Sandy P at November 3, 2004 1:12 PM

The 'nativists' are an ever-shrinking part of America and should be treated as such. Most of us who work with Hispanics, or have them as neighbors, or have taught them, etc see that they aren't altogether different from anyone else who immigrated to America.

The GOP can appeal to these people as it has appealed to people born here, by being the party of hope, growth and opportunity, and by identifying and encouraging those values Hispanic immigrants hold which are clearly consonant with American tradition, love of family and strong Christian faith come to mind. It would also be smart to create a cadre of local officials who speak Spanish well, so that these people can feel comfortable talking with them about what matters most to them. Virtually all Hispanic immigrants know that they need to learn English to advance in US society, but they are not ashamed to be Spanish speaking and should not be made to feel inferior because they speak Spanish.

The Democrats are clearly masters at high-handedness, as we can see from their choice of John Kerry as a national standard-bearer, and we can take advantage of this by treating Hispanic Americans as equals rather than as housepets, as the Democrats do.

Posted by: Bart at November 4, 2004 10:03 AM
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