November 8, 2004

A MONTH EARLIER AND YOU'RE LOOKING AT A LANDSLIDE:

Election, Job Data Lift Mood on Wall St.: With political uncertainty over, equity investors are pouring in, but bond buyers may have reason to be wary. (Josh Friedman and Thomas S. Mulligan, November 8, 2004, LA Times)

Wall Street got both the president and the employment report it wanted last week. Now it could be on the verge of getting the holiday present it craves: a second straight winning year for stocks.

Those odds seemed shaky a week ago, when two of the three main U.S. market indexes were in the red, the election looked too close to call and economists were still using the phrase "jobless recovery."

But with President Bush emerging with a clean victory in Tuesday's election and the Labor Department reporting Friday that employers added 337,000 nonfarm workers to their payrolls in October, the political and economic pictures have come into sharper focus. And for the most part, equity investors like what they see.

"If you wrote a headline to summarize the past week," said David Kelly, an economic advisor at Putnam Investments in Boston, "it would be 'Uncertainty Plunges.' "

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 8, 2004 9:10 AM
Comments

The September and August numbers were revised upward to the total gain was almost 500K.

The equity gain is probably mostly due to the election being over and the recent drop in oil prices (which may be connected to the election as well).

But yes the jobs number, if it had come out before the election, should have helped Bush pick up a few more of the close states like NH, WI, and perhaps PA and MI.

Posted by: AWW at November 8, 2004 9:37 AM

And from which sources would this cheerful information have been disseminated?

Posted by: ed at November 8, 2004 10:03 AM

OJ: There was never a landslide to be had; despite your outpost in a blue state, you drastically underestimate the visceral hatred of the Right by entrenched liberals; the Reagan democrats are a much smaller group these days. The Dems fielded the worst imaginable candidate and still got more votes than four years ago.

Posted by: JimGooding at November 8, 2004 10:14 AM

Yes, war and economics aided their turnout.

Posted by: oj at November 8, 2004 11:02 AM

Watched FoxNews stock market yesterday morning.

Bush bounce is over. The Euros will not buy American stocks because they hate Bush.

Posted by: Sandy P. at November 8, 2004 11:47 AM

Jim, no one will convince me that W lost PA.

Posted by: Sandy P at November 8, 2004 11:49 AM

Sandy - emotional investing like that always gives way to rational investing. If the US market is where the profits are to be made they will invest in the US. If they choose not to they will be punished by either ticked off shareholders or through their own below market returns.

Posted by: AWW at November 8, 2004 12:10 PM

Sandy:

AWW is right, where the hell else are they going to invest?

Posted by: JonofAtlanta at November 8, 2004 12:26 PM

Asia is the place to invest, if you want positive returns, that is. Or energy and metals. The deficits will kill the US equities market. Don't buy the "uncertainty" ruse - there is uncertainty in every election year, it is just an excuse not to accept the fact that this year's flat returns are forecasting flat profits going forward. Throw in higher interest rates and higher energy costs, and you are looking at another recession, as early as next year.

Posted by: Robert Duquette at November 8, 2004 9:12 PM

What deficit?

Posted by: oj at November 8, 2004 10:31 PM

Budget, Trade, personal income/outgo, ...

Posted by: Robert Duquette at November 9, 2004 2:01 PM
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