November 13, 2004
A BIG TARGET:
Need Ed Rendell Fret Over 2nd Term? (Joe Shaheeli, 11/11/04, Philadelphia Public Record)
The Governor looks at figures a little closer than most Pols do. And the figures that are striking is how close President George W. Bush came to taking the Commonwealth from Sen. John Kerry.The governor early on election eve congratulated Congressman and Democratic Party Chairman Bob Brady on a record turnout for the City of Philadelphia that brought out 517,054 votes for Kerry against 124,710 for Bush, a majority of 392, 344. This was higher than what Philadelphia gave Al Gore in the last presidential total. Philadelphians voted 441,834 for Gore to Bush's 99,234.
But by evening's end, when Pennsylvania was declared a Kerry win, that margin of victory had shrunk down to 119, 927.
Now presidential election turnouts are by far the heaviest in this Commonwealth. They usually portend well for Democrats. By the same tradition, all other election years show a marked decrease.
That's what worries a good thinking politician like Governor Rendell.
Four years ago Al Gore easily beat the president 204,860. This time Bush had almost cut that margin in half.
Could that be a foretelling of what may happen in the next gubernatorial race in this Commonwealth?
PA just waits to be shifted into the Red column. Given that the Democrats only had a 2% point advantage in the generic ballot in the presidential, the GOP will certainly have a several point advantage in an off year. Posted by Orrin Judd at November 13, 2004 8:11 AM
This is why Ridge needs to be kept on any 2008 shortlist.
Posted by: JAB at November 13, 2004 10:23 AMYou have to beat somebody with somebody. Ridge is a lightweight, he fits right in the Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade between Bullwinkle and Spongebob Squarepants. Plus, he comes from an isolated corner of the state, Erie.
Maybe Toomey can be convinced to run.
Posted by: Bart at November 13, 2004 11:08 AMThis is an odd state. For whatever reason, few enterprises are started to replace the industries that close on a regular basis. As a result people who have lived there forever are leaving, as are the young people with any education or ambition. The remaining population is aging rapidly. There is a huge underground economy. Republicans can and do win there -- church and guns and "moral values" remain important -- but I wouldn't stake the party on the notion that this place is trending Red.
Posted by: curt at November 13, 2004 1:17 PMIt sounds as if in Philadelphia it's vote fraud only when the dead vote multiple times.
Posted by: Raoul Ortega at November 13, 2004 2:32 PMRendell probably has a good idea of how much of the Philly vote was fraud/other so he knows how close Bush actually came. And don't forget Rendell worked to have PA military absentee ballots tossed out on a technicality.
As for governor Bart is right - you need a somebody to beat Rendell. Heinz may have helped Kerry in PA given her ties to the state but that won't help Rendell in '06.
Posted by: AWW at November 13, 2004 9:48 PMThe GOP has not run a strong candidate for governor since Dick Thornburgh. Ridge was effective, but had weak opposition. Rendell is a tough bird, and unless Santorum wants to get out of D.C., no one in the GOP will come close (and maybe not even then).
PA is a unique state, with a higher population of people from small towns than any other state. And most of them are 45+. It used to be that Philly and Pittsburgh cancelled each other out (pretty much) in statewide races, but Western PA is older and now (and has not grown as fast as the East), plus suburban Phila. votes more Democratic than it did 25 years ago.
Santorum's likely opponent in 2006 will be Barbara Hafer, a former Republican who reminds many of Hillary Clinton.
Posted by: jim hamlen at November 13, 2004 11:52 PMThe best method for the Reps to win PA is for Bush to sic the FBI on the Philly vote machine. Toss the 100 biggest fish in jail by the next election, and watch the Dem advantage in the east drop by 30%.
BTW, my mother was a Ward Commiteewoman in David Lawrence's machine - I am more than familiar with REALLY, REALLY GOTV.
Posted by: bud couch at November 14, 2004 10:52 AM