November 4, 2004

60-40 ALMOST EXACTLY (via MB):

USA Today has posted the Red/Blue Map and some factoids, the most revealing of which is that Mr. Bush won counties with a total population of 151 million to John Kerry's 104 million. It is not a 50-50 country but a 60-40.

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 4, 2004 10:19 AM
Comments

it seems like that chart is still missing some kerry county populations that will bring his up a bit.

Posted by: some random person at November 4, 2004 10:48 AM

Agreed. Having Cook County listed still as "undecided" is not realistic, but it is interesting how easily you can pinpoint the big urban areas in many parts of the nation by looking for the tiny blue dots, as with Missouri, Kansas, the Pacific Coast region and even in Pennslyvania and New York State.

Posted by: John at November 4, 2004 10:57 AM

I copied those maps, and with Photoshop, did a "subtract" between the two to find the counties that switched. The undecideds/not reporting do add a bit of noise. But you can still see some patterns.

In the west you can see a few Bush->Kerry that track nicely with the Californication of the west (Teton County Wyo., Missoula, Mont., near Lake Tahoe, Colo. rockies, etc.) There's a band stretching from Oklahoma east and northward of all sorts of counties that have flipped Gore->Bush. This band ends at New Joisey and around Minneapolis. The Dakotas and northern Minn. (and part of Iowa) are Bush->Kerry flip country, as are northern New Hampshire. Once the missing counties have been filled in for 2004, someone should follow up on the subtraction map.

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at November 4, 2004 11:30 AM

I need to send this map to my father. An independent who voted Republican in Vermont and Democrat now that he lives in Idaho, he is a self-descibed moderate and a fan of Republicans like Chaffee, Snow, and Scowcroft.

My father is also a former Political Science professor, his conception of the Republican party seems lodged in the early seventies when he got his PhD in Austin. The Republicans are the party of Big Business, racist former southern Democrats, and the wealthy.

On that last point, I get a kick out of the Idaho map. The high tech economy areas around Boise went for Bush, as did the Mormon farmers, and DOE researchers in the Southeast, the protestant farmers in the southwest and the Palouse, and the loggers in the north. What area went for Kerry? Ketchum Sun-Valley.

I now live in south-central Utah. There used to be several Democratic-controlled counties down here. The national Democrats destroyed the mining industry which was the core of the Democratic party in the area. Big deal the dems might say - they now have strenght around Park City (the idle rich), and in Salt Lake City. It's an ok trade, I guess. Except that the legislators that come out of those areas have no chance of appealing on a statewide basis. Rural democrats could, but their children (the Matheson family in Utah, the Democratic Udalls in Arizona and New Mexico) have trouble relating or appealing to their states as a whole. I suspect that the Democrats have the same problems in states like Missouri and Ohio.

Posted by: Jason Johnson at November 4, 2004 11:44 AM

I need to send this map to my father. An independent who voted Republican in Vermont and Democrat now that he lives in Idaho, he is a self-descibed moderate and a fan of Republicans like Chaffee, Snow, and Scowcroft.

My father is also a former Political Science professor, his conception of the Republican party seems lodged in the early seventies when he got his PhD in Austin. The Republicans are the party of Big Business, racist former southern Democrats, and the wealthy.

On that last point, I get a kick out of the Idaho map. The high tech economy areas around Boise went for Bush, as did the Mormon farmers, and DOE researchers in the Southeast, the protestant farmers in the southwest and the Palouse, and the loggers in the north. What area went for Kerry? Ketchum Sun-Valley.

I now live in south-central Utah. There used to be several Democratic-controlled counties down here. The national Democrats destroyed the mining industry which was the core of the Democratic party in the area. Big deal the dems might say - they now have strenght around Park City (the idle rich), and in Salt Lake City. It's an ok trade, I guess. Except that the legislators that come out of those areas have no chance of appealing on a statewide basis. Rural democrats could, but their children (the Matheson family in Utah, the Democratic Udalls in Arizona and New Mexico) have trouble relating or appealing to their states as a whole. I suspect that the Democrats have the same problems in states like Missouri and Ohio.

Posted by: Jason Johnson at November 4, 2004 11:44 AM


Neat map, Raoul. Interesting - big switchers Bush to Kerry are vacation destinations where wealthy people have bought a lot of second houses -- the ski areas of Colorado; Tahoe; not Missoula Montana, which was Gore to Kerry, but the Kalispell/Whitefish area west of Glacier National Park; Grand Teton area; Shenandoah Valley Virginia; Northeast Kingdom and White Mountain areas of Vermont and New Hampshire.

I wonder how many of those people voted twice?

Posted by: pj at November 4, 2004 1:55 PM

We need EPA rules that identify high-density urbanism with ecological unsoundness. Break up the megalopolises and scatter the urbanist / colletivist losers far and wide.

Posted by: M. Murcek at November 4, 2004 1:57 PM

You are right. I didn't look close enough and confused the colors of. But that would explain why Gallatin County (Bozeman) isn't blue. (The again, Silver Bow switched, and do people really think of Butte as a vacation destination?) Also need to factor in the Indian Reservations too. (Glacier and Big Horn in Mont.) But it all makes some sense— People who move to those areas are putting down enough roots to "turn red" while the vacationers are just passing through. And their attitudes would tend to rub off since they have the money.

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at November 4, 2004 2:19 PM

I find it disturbing that almost none of the far west switched Gore-Bush. This region includes some of the fastest growing populations in the nation. I hope that the Bush-Bush areas are growing faster than the Bush-Kerry and Kerry-Kerry regions, but I don't think that is the case.

Posted by: Pat H at November 4, 2004 2:41 PM

Very interesting, Jason, because your finer detail version tends to invalidate the state-by-state picture of Bush winning the cow states and Kerry the 21st century economy states. (Texas being some of both.)

Posted by: Harry Eagar at November 4, 2004 3:32 PM

Pat, the Far West isn't growing as fast as it used to. California only gained one seat this time and the others gained none. By contrast, Florida and Arizona gained two apiece.

Posted by: Bart at November 4, 2004 4:12 PM
« AMERICA CONTRA MUNDUM | Main | SHIPS THAT PASS IN THE NIGHT: »