October 11, 2004

WE WERE PROMISED A WOBBLY BASE, DANGIT:

Conservatives more pro-Bush than in 2000 (Ralph Z. Hallow, 10/11/04, THE WASHINGTON TIMES)

Three weeks before Election Day, President Bush has consolidated the support of conservative Republicans to a much higher degree than was true four years ago, veteran campaign analysts say. [...]

Mr. Clinton did "promote gays in the military and Hillary's health-care plan, but he ended up balancing the budget and actually shrank government a little bit for a couple of years," Mr. Weyrich said. "So while conservatives didn't like him or trust him, they didn't fear him. But they feel Kerry is so far left."

An Oct. 1-3 poll of 1,000 likely voters by Republican pollster John McLaughlin showed Mr. Bush has the support of 97 percent of conservative Republican voters, compared with the 91 percent he had in 2000.

People who identify themselves as conservative constitute the huge bulk of the GOP — 72 percent. By comparison, self-declared liberals make up only 36 percent of Democratic voters, according to the McLaughlin poll.

Mr. Kerry is doing better among Democrat moderates, winning 87 percent of them compared with the 74 percent of Republican moderates who say they prefer Mr. Bush. But only 23 percent of Republicans describe themselves as moderates, while 37 percent of Democrats describe themselves as moderates.

In the latest Gallup poll, Mr. Bush is winning 74 percent of self-identified conservative voters, compared with 59 percent in 2000.


Easy to forget how much folks held his Dad against him.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 11, 2004 8:12 PM
Comments

That is absolutely true. I know that I would have voted against Bush had he not run against that clownish Luddite, Gore. My preference was McCain, who I hope runs in 2008.

Posted by: Bart at October 11, 2004 8:50 PM

Bart - McCain will never get the GOP nomination. 2000 was his shot and he missed.

Posted by: AWW at October 11, 2004 9:37 PM

Who said that McCain was going to try for the GOP nomination? There are other options, especially if St.Hillary is out of the running.

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at October 11, 2004 11:01 PM

CFR alone should put a nail in his coffin. Soros funded that?!

Posted by: Sandy P. at October 11, 2004 11:07 PM

Raoul:

He's running. He's been active here in NH, even campaigning for Bush on primary day.

Posted by: oj at October 11, 2004 11:11 PM

According the GOP Nominating Rulebook, in 2008 it will be McCain's turn. And Hillary will be the likely Democrat candidate.

I have, however, considered the consequence of a Kerry victory. If that happens, I'd really like to see George W make a comeback like Grover Cleveland did in 1892.

The Republicans suffered after 1992 by Bush 41's total withdrawal from politics. Yes, that left the field open for Newt Gingrich and Bob Dole. But neither of them was the perfect spokesman for the GOP.

And if Kerry is elected, I can imagine George W saying, "When I turned over the presidency, I left you with the conditions for victory in the war on terror. You turned it into a stalemate."

Posted by: J Baustian at October 11, 2004 11:41 PM

I don't understand. If 36% of Democrats self-describe as liberal and 37% as moderate, what are the other 27%?

Posted by: jd watson at October 12, 2004 12:02 AM

I didn't say he wasn't running, just that he's not running for the GOP nomination.

The other 27% are the people who keep enthusiastically sending back the likes of McDermott, McKinney, Stark, Kucinich, Lee, Waxman and so on.

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at October 12, 2004 12:23 AM

I got McCain in the dead pool for 2008.

Posted by: Robert Schwartz at October 12, 2004 1:09 AM

GOP conservatives need not fear Kerry. Even if he is quite liberal, he'll still be dealing with a Republican Congress, even more so after '06.
Charismatic Presidents with opposing Congresses can still get things done, as Reagan did, and Bush with the Democratic Texas Legislature, but Kerry won't have much public support after the "honeymoon" period.
If Kerry's elected, I expect to see him fare about as well as Carter did.
(And Carter had a Dem Congress) !

jd watson:

25% of Democrats self-identify as conservative.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at October 12, 2004 5:55 AM

McCain has been going out of his way to be a force for party unity in the last year and it is obvious how much he feels he is intentionally sacrificing in order to be the 'good soldier.' He is going to run in 2008 as the 'entitled candidate' much as Dole ran (or should I say staggered like a zombie in a George Romero movie) in 1996.

McCain sits there as a unifying figure between the neo-cons, who like his Wilsonian foreign policy, the old line GOP, who like his pro-business record, and many in the general public who admire his war record and his political courage. If he is smart, he will hire Ralph Reed as an advisor and figure out how to manuever himself into good stead with the Religious Right without hurting himself elsewhere.

If not McCain, then who? And McCain would stomp the Hildebeest into a mudhole.

Posted by: Bart at October 12, 2004 11:15 AM

Let's get the President re-elected first, then we can worry about McCain.

When the President gets re-elected, if he wants, he can select his successor. All Cheney has to do is retire.

Even if Cheney stays put, if the President indicates his preference, that person will win.

While I would not vote for a Dem for President under any circumstances, this conservative would not vote for McCain either. I suspect others feel the same. Don't assume McCain is a lock for the nomination.

Posted by: Bob at October 12, 2004 11:28 AM

When McCain becomes an active partisan, the press will turn on him quickly. He will be morphed into snarling Bob Dole, and caricatured as the bitter ex-POW who doesn't know when to let go. He will be attacked for being too pro-business, and the Keating 5 will come back to haunt him, no matter what he does for campaign finance reform.

All of McCain's time on cable TV won't help him a bit.

Posted by: jim hamlen at October 12, 2004 12:17 PM
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